'Obama will win the Jewish vote'

Israeli experts say phenomenon of Jews switching candidates at voting booth would likely be small.

By HAVIV RETTIG GUR
obama american flag wave 224 88 (photo credit: AP [file])
obama american flag wave 224 88
(photo credit: AP [file])
Experts observing the American elections believe that despite the rhetoric and vigorous campaigning on both sides, and speculation about a last-minute shift away from Barack Obama at the voting booth, American Jews will overwhelmingly vote for the Democratic contender for president. Some American Jews have already had second guesses about voting for Obama, reported Prof. Eytan Gilboa, an expert in American politics and foreign policy at Bar-Ilan University, currently on sabbatical at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles. "I personally know many people who were tilting toward Obama and decided [in the voting booth itself] to go for McCain," he said. "They changed their minds after the revelations about [Obama's connections with] Rashid Khalidi and others." According to Dr. Ofir Haivry, an expert in Anglo-American political thought at the Shalem Center, "we don't really know many American Jews will vote because many [of those who say they will vote for Obama] are still unsure about him." Haivry also had spoken to many American Jews who already voted and switched at the last minute. The phenomenon points to a problem in predicting the Jewish vote. A Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll released on Monday showed Obama soundly defeating McCain among Jewish voters nationwide by a ratio of 70-29 percent, similar to a lead held by former Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry in 2004, when he had a 74-25 advantage over George W. Bush. But political analyst Tom Gross said "the polls often veer more to the Left than the [actual] vote out of a sense of embarrassment some American Jews feel in telling their friends they're voting Republican. In 2004, Democratic candidate John Kerry led in the polls for the same reasons. People tell their friends and pollsters they're going with the more fashionable candidate, but in the sober reality of the voting booth, some vote differently." These last-minute changes don't reflect a racial element in Jewish voting, Gross said, but rather the mistakes inherent in the polling itself, which reflect a voter's desire to have "their friends think they are supporting the more in-vogue candidate." Even so, the experts said the expected drop in support of Obama at the voting booth would likely be small. Gilboa said that those changing their opinions at the last minute constitute perhaps 5% of American Jews who are independent voters. "Most Jews are firmly in the Democratic or Republican camps, and their votes will reflect that," Gilboa said. "In most of the country, this small percentage [of undecided Jewish voters] will be swallowed up in the huge protest vote for Obama that's sweeping the country." The only places where this small group of Jewish independents could be significant is in battleground states such as Florida and Ohio, "without which no Republican candidate ever took the presidency," Gilboa said. Gross agreed. "Republican Jews had high hopes that there would be a big swing for McCain this year, particularly given the dubious background of some of Obama's associates. It looks like they will be disappointed. Apart from African-Americans, Jews will probably be the most pro-Democratic ethnic voting bloc in America once again," he predicted. American Jewish votes will be "pretty consistent" with the polls, believes Dr. Etta Bick, chair of the department of Israel and Middle East studies at the Ariel University Center and an expert in American Jewry's role in Israel-America relations. Their motivations for voting for Obama are strong ones, she explained. "Liberals feel very good about voting for Obama. In addition to promising change and the general feeling the Republicans are to blame for the economic crisis, [voting for Obama] is very special for them. Voting for a minority candidate demonstrates they are part of an open society." Jerusalem Post staff contributed to this report.