Analysis: Ehud Barak's maneuvering in the coalition game

Barak's set of conditions gives Livni and her team a good indication of what he is after.

By HERB KEINON
Barak 224 88 (photo credit: AP [file])
Barak 224 88
(photo credit: AP [file])
Following coalition negotiations are a lot like watching basketball games: All you really need to do is watch the last two minutes, because it always comes down to the last two minutes. The rest of the game is just buildup. And, with Kadima leader Tzipi Livni still left with another 23 days to form a coalition, we are just about at half time. In other words, still a long way from the final two minutes. As a result, much of what is being said by the parties can be chalked up as posturing. Nevertheless, Defense Minister Ehud Barak's comments on his coalition demands at Sunday's Labor Party ministerial meeting were indicative of where he wants to go. "We are operating with an open mind and and open heart to finalize the conditions for establishing the new government," he said, before laying down four conditions for Labor participation in the government. The second condition dealt with the regular lip service regarding social and economic issues, and the third condition dealt with ending the initiatives of Justice Minister Daniel Friedmann. But it was the first and last conditions - with their vague but telling language - that revealed much about Barak's intentions. The first condition, Barak said, was "true cooperation in diplomatic and security decision making. The issues will be brought to the security cabinet and the decisions on these issues will be made in agreement between the prime minister and the defense minister." There are a couple of key elements at play here. The first is that Barak realizes his chance for political rehabilitation lies in his ability - in the limited time that will be allotted the next government - to prove his security expertise. Barak needs to reassert himself as the country's security maven, and as such needs to have control of the agenda. Both he and Livni were blindsided at times by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert regarding what issues were brought to the Wednesday security cabinet meetings, as well as by other issues on the security and diplomatic agenda. Thus Barak included the phrase "true cooperation" in his coalition conditions because he didn't feel that type of cooperation existed with Olmert. For instance, when Olmert went public with the announcement earlier this year that Israel was holding indirect talks with Syria through Turkey, he did so without first informing either Barak or Livni. The second key element here is that Barak is looking over his shoulder at Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz. Mofaz, back from his very brief "time-out," is in the midst of trying to carve out his own little niche in the government that would place him as part of a triumvirate that would include Livni and Barak. That triumvirate is not good for Barak, since he wants Livni dependent on him for security issues - not on a competing general and former chief of General Staff. Barak's wording of this condition was important - "decisions on these issues will be made in agreement between the prime minister and the defense minister," with no mention of the foreign minister, who very well may be Mofaz. Barak's fourth condition for joining the government is also of interest, with the Labor Party leader demanding "full" cooperation in the diplomatic process with the Syrians and the Palestinians. According to diplomatic officials, what "full" cooperation here means is nothing less than stewardship of the talks with Syria. The current indirect talks with Syria were managed by Olmert's chief of staff Yoram Turbowicz, with both Livni and Barak very much out of the loop. Since any agreement with Syria will have enormous security ramifications for the country, Barak wants control of those talks. As far as the Palestinians are concerned, Barak, according to the officials, realizes that Livni - who has headed the Israeli negotiating team with the Palestinians up until this point - is not about to cede that authority. However, he does want to be better appraised of the negotiations than he is now. Barak's conditions give Livni and her team a good indication of what he is after. There is little doubt that with a little creative thinking and writing, a coalition agreement could be drawn up that would meet those requirements, and also ensure that in the final analysis, the final arbiter in all matters would remain the prime minister. Even Barak realizes this, saying that all his conditions "are with the understanding that they not harm the special status the law gives the prime minister." Ah, but of course.