Analysis: Livni's chore of building a coalition: tough, not impossible

If the new Kadima leader thinks that it was difficult up until now, she hasn't seen anything yet.

By HERB KEINON
Livni how are my teeth 224.88 (photo credit: AP)
Livni how are my teeth 224.88
(photo credit: AP)
If Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni thought that it was difficult - together with Defense Minister Ehud Barak - maneuvering Prime Minister Ehud Olmert out of his seat, if she thought it was tough beating Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz in the Kadima primary, she hasn't seen anything yet. Maneuvering Olmert to the side and winning the Kadima vote were efforts that took cunning, determination and hard work, attributes she will need in abundance if she is to overcome the next hurdle in her march to the premiership: building a coalition. On the face of it, Livni's task looks extremely difficult. Sure, Labor and Shas are both currently in the government, but they joined a government under Olmert. Barak, who has made it abundantly clear he does not have a lot of confidence in Livni's capabilities, will have difficulty taking his marching orders from the woman he disparagingly referred to by her full name, Tziporah. And Shas has other problems. The party wants increased child allowances, something Kadima's finance minister and now close Livni ally Ronnie Bar-On is loath to give, and a freeze on any and all talks with the Palestinians over Jerusalem. Yet, despite these high hurdles, Livni's chances to form a government are not all that bad, for several reasons. First, Livni herself prefers to form a coalition rather than rush headlong into general elections, if only because her razor-thin victory in the primaries over Mofaz has had to sober her up a bit and get her to realize that despite the polls, she is in no way a shoo-in in the general election. Despite bluster about a willingness to go immediately to the people if need be, Livni does not need an election now, but rather would do well with an opportunity to prove herself. Indeed, a general election would expose her to numerous questions that - up until now - she has not had to answer: questions about her experience, about her achievements, and about whether she has left any significant mark on the ministerial posts she has held in the past, on her performance around the government's table during the Second Lebanon War. For the most part, Livni has enjoyed a charmed path from the Knesset back benches to presumptive prime minister. An election campaign would inevitably knock some of that charm off. Secondly, Barak does not need an election now. Barak is the one who initiated the process that eventually led to Olmert's decision to resign. Had he wanted new elections, he could have immediately pulled Labor out of the government - and looked like a man of great integrity - over the Morris Talansky affair. Instead, he called on Kadima to crown a new chairman. And now that they have done so, it would be difficult for him to explain why he would not respect their choice. Also, now that Mofaz has, at least for the time being, removed himself from the public arena, Livni would to a large extent be leaning heavily on Barak's security expertise in the government. When Barak joined the cabinet last year, replacing Amir Peretz, his hope was that he could use the position, about which he knows a thing or two, to rebuild his public image. It hasn't worked that way, and for a variety of reasons his popularity is no better now than it was back then. Still, Barak's only real chance of rehabilitating himself politically is to perform well in his current job. If Barak leads Labor out of the government and into the opposition, chances are that Labor's fortunes would plummet in the next election. Chances are also good that he would then be unceremoniously dumped as Labor's leader. And then there is Shas, again in its familiar position as king-maker. Or not. First of all, Livni could theoretically form a government without Shas, if she keeps Labor and the two pensioners' factions in the government, and adds Meretz with its five seats. That would give her 60 seats. She would also then try to get United Torah Judaism and the Arab parties to support the government from outside. That she could conceivably make do without Shas already reduces, to a certain extent, the party's leverage. Secondly, Shas leader Eli Yishai, who is facing a bit of a leadership challenge from Communications Minister Ariel Atias, would likely be loath to bring leadership issues inside Shas to the fore now - something that would inevitably ensue if general elections were called. Also, Shas has 12 Knesset seats, and the polls are not showing that it would make any great gains. So why rock the boat? Regarding Shas's two demands, for child allowances and no negotiations on Jerusalem, with a little political and financial creativity Livni could meet their needs. Israel's political history has shown that ways can be found to accommodate parties making financial demands that, while not aesthetic, would be swallowed by the public and the other coalition parties. And as far as Jerusalem is concerned, it would not be that difficult for Livni to commit to not dealing with Jerusalem at this point. With the negotiations currently at an apparent standstill, and it not at all clear whether Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas will be calling the shots after his term expires in January, Livni could conceivably promise not to discuss Jerusalem until the fog surrounding the internal situation in the PA lifts, and until a new administration is well in place in Washington. By that time, and this could be nine to 12 months down the road, Livni - if she has proven herself in her new job - might then be ready for new elections and not care if Shas bolts because of Jerusalem.