Morsy reshuffles the deck

The Egyptian president’s seizure of power hit Israel like a bolt out of the blue.

By YORAM MEITAL
Morsy victory speech 370 (photo credit: REUTERS)
Morsy victory speech 370
(photo credit: REUTERS)
In sacking his defense minister, Egypt’s Islamist President Mohammed Morsy cut, at a stroke, the Gordian knot of Cairo’s adversarial government. Ever since Hosni Mubarak’s ouster 18 months ago, the state had been run by a military council with wide-ranging powers, headed by the defense minister, Mohammed Tantawi. Most of the political parties vying for influence in the new Egypt were critical of the council, arguing that it was part and parcel of the old regime and that it was doing its utmost to sabotage the transfer of power to the newly elected civilian leadership.
From the moment he was elected president in June, tensions between Morsy and the military council intensified. Morsy argued that under the Egyptian system of government, the president is responsible for shaping policy and is also, ex officio, supreme commander of the armed forces. He published a 100-day plan for dealing with urgent domestic issues and instructed his government to take immediate action to restore personal security and revive the economy. The precise division of power among the president, the parliament and the military council was meant to be decided by a constitutional committee, which, for the past several months, has been drafting a new constitution.
But the unprecedented early August terrorist attack in Sinai, in which 16 Egyptian servicemen were killed, gave Morsy the chance he was looking for to reshuffle the deck.
First he fired a number of senior army and intelligence officers. That turned out to be only a prelude to a much more significant move: sacking the top military and intelligence command, followed by a constitutional decree giving the president total control of the executive and until the election of a new parliament, of the legislature as well. Within three months of his election, Morsy had seized control of the reins of government.
Although the move has wide public support in Egypt, there are also fears among various sectors over the domestic implications of the Islamist takeover. Outside Egypt, there were mixed feelings over the potential ramifications for Egyptian foreign and defense policy. From day one, Morsy has repeatedly declared that Egypt will honor its international commitments, including the peace treaty with Israel. But he has also taken steps pointing to a change in policy toward Gaza and Hamas. Crucially though, he has done nothing to upset Washington.
On the contrary, he has been able to develop effective channels of communication to the American administration, which didn’t hide its disapproval of the military council’s machinations.
Morsy’s seizure of power hit Israel like a bolt out of the blue. In public, Israeli leaders made careful statements, but, behind the scenes, there was real concern over the implications for Israel’s national security doctrine. For over three decades, the peace with Egypt has been a central pillar of Israel’s strategic planning. Moreover, the dismissal of senior army officers who had maintained close routine contacts with Israel raised immediate concerns over the security situation in Sinai. Indeed, Israeli decision-makers face an acute dilemma: After the ongoing large-scale Egyptian counter-strike in Sinai, should they demand that Egypt withdraw its forces according to the letter of the peace treaty’s military annex, or should they consider amending it by mutual agreement? A new agreement would be better than a situation in which Israel finds itself facing a fait accompli that could strain the peace treaty. Clearly, the collapse of the treaty would seriously undermine vital interests of both parties, not to mention the body blow it would deal to US policy in the Middle East.
President Morsy has placed Egypt at a critical crossroads. Egyptians now have a real chance of instituting a pluralistic civilian regime. But there are serious inherent dangers. Morsy has led his country to a watershed moment. What he does next will have a decisive impact on the nature and fortunes of the new Egypt he is shaping. •
Prof. Yoram Meital, an expert on Egypt, is chairman of the Chaim Herzog Center for Middle East Studies & Diplomacy at Ben-Gurion University in the Negev.