Saudi suffer another succession setback

Newly appointed Saudi leaders must continue the modernization of the country.

By TIMOTHY SPANGLER
Nayef and Sultan 311 R (photo credit: REUTERS/Fahad Shadeed)
Nayef and Sultan 311 R
(photo credit: REUTERS/Fahad Shadeed)
This week, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Nayef bin Abdul Aziz, died unexpectedly in Geneva, where he was receiving medical treatment.  Nayef, 79, was the next in line to succeed King Abdullah, who at 88 is also in poor health. It had been only a year since Nayef assumed the role of Crown Prince, after the death of his brother, Sultan, in October 2011.
The question of the Saudi succession again puts the royal family under intense scrutiny, as Saudi watchers attempt to determine what effect the selection of the next King will have on the country, and the region as a whole.
The Crown Prince is traditionally selected by a body known as the Allegiance Council, which consists of the decedents of the first King of Saudi Arabia, Abdul-Aziz al Saud.  Nayef had represented the more conservative faction of the royal family, and was closely linked to the hard-line Wahhabi clerics who direct religious life in the kingdom and support the monarchical claims of the ruling family.
Nayef built his reputation as Interior Minister, with responsibility for ensuring that Saudi Arabia was secure and stably.  He first gained international notoriety as part of the bloody confrontation that resulted from the attempt in 1979 by Islamist extremists to seize the Grand Mosque located in the holy city of Mecca.  The dangers posed by various extremist groups remained a significant priority during his later life.  In particular, Nayef oversaw the iron-fisted crackdown on al-Qaeda in the years after the September 11th bombings in America.
King Abdullah has been both a modernizer and a staunch American ally.  He has taken important steps during his reign to effect a small measure of democratic reform, as well as securing some additional rights for women.  However, at 90 years old, King Abdullah is limited to performing his royal duties only two days a week, and it believed to be suffering from serious health issues himself.  An anti-reform Crown Prince could put these “slow but steady” liberalizing changes at risk.
Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz, the present defense minister, was appointed the next Crown Prince the day after Nayef was buried in an unmarked grave in Mecca, according to Saudi custom.  At only 72 years old, Salman is younger than the previous two Crown Princes, and is seen a pragmatic leader who will continue the reforms of King Abdullah.
As a result of the protocol underlying the Saudi succession process, Salman and any other subsequent candidates for the Saudi throne will necessarily be very old.  Since the older generation of sons of Abdul-Aziz are unlikely to stand aside, the younger princes are for all practical purposes excluded from the succession in the near to medium term.  Curiously, 60 percent of the Saudi population is under the age of 21, leading to a country of very young people, being ruled by a handful of the very oldest.
Saudi Arabia may be oil-rich, but it still suffers severe economic challenges.  Unemployment is over 10 percent, but unemployment among men under 30 may be as high as 35 percent.  The discovery of oil in the late 1930 brought enormous cash revenue to the kingdom, but broader economic, political and social development has been much more limited.
In particular, Saudi women are still subject to strict limitations on what they can do, despite the liberalizations of King Abdullah.  A Saudi woman is not allowed to drive a car.  Without the permission of a man, she is not allowed to work or start a business or travel or marry.  Saudi girls are prohibited from exercising or playing sports, which has resulted in significant health issues as they grow older.
It remains unclear whether Saudi authorities will finally permit female athletes to participate at the Summer Olympic Games in London.  If they do not, Saudi Arabia will earn the dubious honor of being the last remaining country never to have sent a woman to represent it at the Olympics.  The International Olympic Committee has done little to try to force Saudi officials to take the exclusion of women athletes more seriously.
The Arab Spring that cut across much of the Middle East and North Africa last year has left Saudi Arabia virtually unscathed.  Saudi officials have made use of both carrots, in the form of increased cash benefits, and sticks, in the form of police crackdowns, to keep their population from openly protesting.  The recent fall in oil prices, however, leaves the Saudi government in a particularly tight bind, should their ability to buy off, directly or indirectly, their citizens ultimately evaporate.
The future direction of Saudi Arabia is a pressing global issue.  An unstable Saudi government could give Islamist extremists an opportunity to re-establish themselves in the kingdom and potentially take control of the two holiest cities in Islam, Mecca and Medina.  But continued reform and liberalization must remain a priority.  To ignore the needs and requirements of the rapidly growing number of young Saudis would be a recipe for disaster.
Saudi leaders, including the newly appointed Crown Prince Salman, should be encouraged to continue King Abdullah’s attempts at modernizing their country.  A government timetable for change will probably be much more preferable to the Saudi royal family than a timetable set by the more angry and aggrieved of their subjects.
The writer is a commentator who divides his time between the United Kingdom and Southern California. He has appeared on CNN, CNBC, BBC and Sky News, and has been featured in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, The Financial Times and The Economist.