Voices from the Arab press: What will be next in Syria?

The biggest winner of the current situation (in the Syrian Civil War) seems to be Iran. Once the last Russian soldier leaves Syria, the Iranians will be free to up the ante.

By COMPILEDTHE MEDIA LINE
RUSSIAN PRESIDENT Vladimir Putin (right) and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu watch Russian soldiers passing by as they visit the Hmeymim air base in Latakia Province, Syria, December 2017 (photo credit: REUTERS)
RUSSIAN PRESIDENT Vladimir Putin (right) and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu watch Russian soldiers passing by as they visit the Hmeymim air base in Latakia Province, Syria, December 2017
(photo credit: REUTERS)
WHAT WILL BE NEXT IN SYRIA?
Asharq al-Awsat, London, December 13
“As Russian forces in Syria prepare to pack up their bags and return home, several questions arise about the war-torn country’s future. The most important one is, of course, who will rule once the Russians are gone?
“Moscow’s intervention in Syria undoubtedly began as a dangerous one. Since the beginning of its armed operation, the Kremlin refused to support the legitimate Syrian opposition and sided, instead, with Bashar Assad. While Russian forces targeted regime opponents, the United States focused its efforts on eliminating Islamic State. These groups seem to have been dramatically weakened, if not altogether destroyed, paving the way for the upcoming Russian withdrawal.
“Therefore, when taken at face value, the biggest winner of the current situation seems to be Iran. Once the last Russian soldier leaves Syria, the Iranians will be free to up the ante. However, there are risks involved, as controlling Syria is no easy feat. The Russians and Americans together, after all, could barely assert their dominance over the country. Accordingly, Syria could prove to be a death trap for the Iranians. The only way for Iran and Assad to maintain their rule is to reach a negotiated agreement, and the US is desperately trying to keep Tehran neutralized.
“The failure of the most recent round of UN-brokered peace talks in Geneva is definitely discouraging to the mullahs. Without European, Russian and American support, Syria will inevitably remain split between Assad loyalists and dissidents. Iran must be flexible enough to reach a solution that is accepted to both the Russians and the Americans. This might just push Tehran to make concessions, as at the end of the day Syria will inevitably remain a territory within its sphere of influence.
“The question is how much can we reduce this risk over the long term.”
– Abd al-Rahman al-Rashed
SAUDI ARABIA AND JORDAN: THE END OF A ROMANCE?
Al-Arab Al-Yawm, Jordan, December 15
“One of the most interesting developments following US President Donald Trump’s Jerusalem declaration is the disparate responses by Arab states.
“The most notable discrepancy was between the reactions of Jordan and Saudi Arabia, the latter of which was faint. The House of Saud issued a weakly worded statement and provided almost no coverage of the announcement or the protests that ensued in the Arab world. Many political commentators believe the Saudis received prior warning about the Jerusalem move and even okayed it in advance.
“By contrast, the Jordanian monarchy was quick to condemn Trump’s decision, with King Abdullah II publicly vowing to protect the Holy City and al-Aksa Mosque.
He immediately reached out to Turkey, which has long been viewed as a leader in the region, and called for a meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in Istanbul.
“This divergence between Riyadh and Amman is an interesting one. The two countries have long stood by each other and coordinated their foreign affairs positions closely. In extending a warm embrace to Turkey, however, Jordan signaled to Saudi Arabia that it will no longer accept being in the kingdom’s shadow. While Amman might be able to tolerate matters relating to ISIS, Hezbollah and the Syrian war, for example, it is simply not willing to back down on its red line: Jerusalem.
“The Saudis might project a sense of power and confidence, but they will soon realize that losing Jordan, one of its most important allies, is something that it cannot afford. By marginalizing Abdullah and disregarding his stance on Jerusalem, Riyadh added fuel to fire. It will now have to reevaluate its loyalties and realign its position sooner than one might think.”
– Mahmoud Abu
Hillal PALESTINIAN STEADFASTNESS IS THE ONLY SOLUTION
Al-Okaz, Saudi Arabia, December 7
“Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas didn’t think twice before deciding how to respond to the American announcement on Jerusalem. Some critics slammed his reluctance to call for armed resistance instead of adhering to a strict policy of peaceful protests. But Abbas’s strategy might yet be proven correct.
“Abu Mazen [Abbas], who has ruled the Palestinian Authority for the past 12 years, is well aware of the current international conditions, which do not work in his favor. The Arab world has lost interest in the Palestinian problem. With this in mind, he is trying to cut his losses by boycotting the US administration and severing most ties to Israel while maintaining control over what is left of Palestine. It is unlikely, though, that Abbas will order the PA to cut security coordination with Israel, as his own government relies on this support. He will, however, assume a more aggressive diplomatic posture toward Israel, specifically in international forums, with the hope of gaining widespread recognition of Palestine with east Jerusalem as its capital. Abbas might also play the BDS card, since boycotts have been effective in forcing the Israeli government to make concessions.
“There is no doubt that the Palestinians are the biggest losers of the US declaration, but at the same time not all is lost. If Abbas continues to uphold his positions while making clear to both the Israelis and Americans that their Jerusalem initiative will not pay off, he may very well succeed in bringing the Palestinian issue back onto the agenda. President Trump will not stay in office for much longer and as soon as a new administration takes the reins, Abbas will be in a more advantageous place. Until then, the name of the game is patience. Only steadfastness and resilience will get the Palestinians closer to their goal.”
– Abd al-Nasser Essa
FACEBOOK AND THE SELF-RADICALIZING LONE WOLF
Al-Araby al-Jadeed, London, December 7
“For years, officials from various tech companies have told us that social media have no connection to radicalization. Facebook in particular spearheaded this campaign, reassuring policymakers – from Capitol Hill to the European Parliament – that they had nothing to worry about.
“The recent lone-wolf attack carried out in New York City put an end to these denials. Akayed Ullah, a Bangladeshi immigrant who set off a pipe bomb in one of Manhattan’s busiest public transit stations, was directly inspired by what he saw on Facebook. In his interrogation, Ullah admitted to having followed ISIS-related profiles on social media since moving to the United States. More specifically, he was inspired by videos on how to assemble homemade explosive devices and carrying out successful attacks against Westerners.
“Facebook can therefore no longer deny its role in fostering terrorism. Even the everyday use of its platform for peaceful purposes has stripped individuals of their privacy and encouraged superficial social interactions between friends and family members. Today, it is almost impossible to block Facebook’s interference in our lives. Granted, it is not an inherently evil tool, yet it has perils, many of which are still unbeknownst to us. It is our responsibility to ensure that social media is used for peaceful purposes or, at the very least, monitored by our security and intelligence agencies. Otherwise, we will quickly find ourselves left with no control over the materials that are being proliferated around us. We are already heading that way.”
– Mashari al-Zayidi