CBS study projects 11.4 million Israelis in 2035

Estimates show that after slightly narrowing, demographic balance between Jews, Arabs will stabilize within next few decades.

By JOSHUA LIPSON
June 25, 2013 23:39
2 minute read.
Babies born in Israel.

BABIES BORN in Israel 311. (photo credit: Sasson Tiram)

 
X

Dear Reader,
As you can imagine, more people are reading The Jerusalem Post than ever before. Nevertheless, traditional business models are no longer sustainable and high-quality publications, like ours, are being forced to look for new ways to keep going. Unlike many other news organizations, we have not put up a paywall. We want to keep our journalism open and accessible and be able to keep providing you with news and analyses from the frontlines of Israel, the Middle East and the Jewish World.

As one of our loyal readers, we ask you to be our partner.

For $5 a month you will receive access to the following:

  • A user experience almost completely free of ads
  • Access to our Premium Section
  • Content from the award-winning Jerusalem Report and our monthly magazine to learn Hebrew - Ivrit
  • A brand new ePaper featuring the daily newspaper as it appears in print in Israel

Help us grow and continue telling Israel’s story to the world.

Thank you,

Ronit Hasin-Hochman, CEO, Jerusalem Post Group
Yaakov Katz, Editor-in-Chief

UPGRADE YOUR JPOST EXPERIENCE FOR 5$ PER MONTH Show me later

The nation’s population is on track to reach 11.4 million by 2035, with 4.7 million babies expected to be born in the next two-and-a-half decades, the Central Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.

CBS published its projections on ethnic and religious demographics, overall fertility rate, life expectancy, and age demographics.

Be the first to know - Join our Facebook page.


The intermediate projection estimates that after slightly narrowing, the demographic balance between Jews and Arabs will stabilize within the next few decades.

The Jewish population is expected to grow to 8.3 million, or 73 percent of the total in 2035; the Arab population is expected to grow to 2.6 million, or 23%; with members of other groups comprising 500,000, or 4% of the population.

The CBS projects the Muslim population will grow to 2.3 million, growing at a higher rate than the Druse and Christian minorities. However, the Druse population is expected to outstrip the Arab Christian population within the next few decades. CBS projects a Druse population of 185,000 in 2035, and an Arab Christian population of 152,000.

In addition, the CBS estimates that the overall fertility rate, which measures the number of children born to the average woman, is expected to decline modestly from 2.94 at present to 2.75 in 2035. The rate for Jews is projected to increase from 2.99 to 3.04, while the rate for Muslims is projected to decline from 3.37 to 2.71. Arab Christian and Druse fertility is projected to hold roughly steady.

Despite the decline in the total fertility rate, Israel is likely to remain exceptionally fertile.

JPOST VIDEOS THAT MIGHT INTEREST YOU:


Citing UN estimates, the CBS estimates that the 2035 total fertility rate will hold steady above the developed world’s average of 1.82, and will outstrip all neighboring Arab states – the most fertile of which, Jordan, has a projected 2035 figure of 2.41.

As a result of declining fertility, Israel’s annual population growth rate by 2035 is projected to decline to 1.4% from the current rate of 1.9%. However, the sharper decline in immigration means that 94% of growth between 2010 and 2035 will be the result of natural increase, as opposed to 89% for the years 2006 to 2010.

Moreover, CBS projections suggest that Israel’s already high life expectancy is set to increase across all sectors by 2035. In 22 years, the average Jewish female born in Israel may expect to live 89.5 years, as opposed to 86.3 for Arab females, 84.8 for Jewish males, and 81.6 for Arab males.

And while the CBS expects that 4.7 million Israelis will be born between 2010 and 2035, the rise in life expectancy across all sectors means that the Israel of 2035 will be a demographically older country than today. The CBS estimates that by 2035, there will be 1.7 million Israelis aged 65 years and older, or 14.6% percent of the population. Israel is set to remain young by comparison to the rest of the developed world, a quarter of whose population will be 65 and older by 2035.

Join Jerusalem Post Premium Plus now for just $5 and upgrade your experience with an ads-free website and exclusive content. Click here>>

Related Content

Riot
August 31, 2014
Rioting resumes throughout east Jerusalem Saturday night

By DANIEL K. EISENBUD