Seth J. Frantzman

One of Iran’s key strategies for maintaining regional influence is not to lose its hold over Iraq, leading to strikes against Kurdish Iranian opposition groups in Iraq.

Iran's strikes on Israel are not so much a response to strikes on Beirut as they are Iran's attempt at clawing back regional power and influence.

These talks have gone on for two months. Pakistan has continued to stay the course in terms of trying to be optimistic that a deal is within reach.

“We are fed up, and we want to live in peace,” said Lebanese President Joseph Aoun.

Iran’s Quds Force chief Esmail Qaani demanded Israel withdraw from Lebanon, warning that supporting Hezbollah is a duty and stressing the region’s ongoing tensions.

Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al Zaidi met Iranian-backed militias to push them to disarm and join state command, aiming to limit armed group influence while avoiding conflict.

The key parts of the deal are the ceasefire, the creation of “pilot zones” for the Lebanese army to take control, and also movement toward a comprehensive deal.

The meetings in Washington between the US, Israel, and Lebanon are important, but it remains to be seen what concrete changes can emerge. 

Iraq is at a turning point as militias begin procedures to disengage from the PMF and potentially hand weapons to the government amid US pressure.

Iran claimed this is “conducted in response to a series of US military attacks.”