Don't try to predict Israel's economy - the lesson from 2021

Two years after corona became a fait accompli, tourism industry workers, hoteliers, tour guides, travel agents and aviation industry workers are clinging to their occupations.

 RAMOT MALL: The Haredi presence has changed the neighborhood's character (photo credit: OLIVER FITOUSSI/FLASH90)
RAMOT MALL: The Haredi presence has changed the neighborhood's character
(photo credit: OLIVER FITOUSSI/FLASH90)

COVID-19 

A Channel 12 poll conducted in early December, showed that the coronavirus "won" a very low rating in the public’s interest - only 6% of respondents claimed to be bothered by the virus.
COVID-19 became a dull story because at that time people were still celebrating the victory over the Delta strain, and morbidity was continuing to decline. But then Omicron appeared and made corona more relevant than ever. Once again, a closure is on the agenda and there is already talk of tens of thousands of people who will be infected per day.
It turns out that corona is unpredictable just like the weather.
And yet it is also surprising and also disappointing to discover that in 2021 "experts" of all kinds still believe that they can predict the virus’s behavior and know how to deal with it.
Do not believe those who will also try in 2022 to predict what will happen with COVID, its effect on the education system and when the fourth vaccine will be available. The most we can predict is what the name of the next strain might be.
Politicians
Added to this was the way our politicians acted this past year.
What was surprising and disappointing was not only the withdrawal from the commitments but the lightning speed with which it happened. Promises made were violated on a wholesale level.  The very formation of the government was done thanks to a massive and unprecedented breach of vows, such as Naftali Bennett's promise not to sit in government under Yair Lapid or with Mansour Abbas. Since then, the so-called “change government” has been overloaded with ministers, deputy ministers, and Knesset Members introduced under the Norwegian Law, even though we were once promised a mere 18 ministers.
Political appointments did not stop, coalition funds were dispersed and promises such as the payment of unemployment benefits to the self-employed remain on paper.

Dollar

Toward the end of 2021, the dollar approached the area code of 2. Provident fund yields are approaching a peak of 13%. The stock market broke records when the Tel Aviv 135 index rose to 28%, and the end is not yet in sight.
And it's still surprising to find that all those who thought interest rates were going to rise and the bond market was on its way to collapse continue to pretend to be able to predict what will happen in 2022.
As the saying goes: predictions are like perfume, pleasant to smell but dangerous to drink.
The behavior of the dollar is unpredictable, just like the behavior of Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Turkish lira are, mainly because the Israeli economy is global and not just domestic. In order to know what will happen to the interest rate, one must try to get into the heads of the chair of the US Federal Reserve, and not Prof. Amir Yaron, governor of the Bank of Israel.

 AMIR YARON walks to a cabinet meeting in Jerusalem during the COVID-19 pandemic. (credit: EMIL SALMAN/REUTERS) AMIR YARON walks to a cabinet meeting in Jerusalem during the COVID-19 pandemic. (credit: EMIL SALMAN/REUTERS)
Employment
 The market lacks tens of thousands of employees. Everyone is begging for employees and not just in high-tech. This is already obvious - it is known that graduates of the IDF’s 8200 Unit or cyber people receive starting salaries in the tens of thousands.
 But even in traditional industries like restaurants, healthcare, and transportation businesses are desperate for manpower, which refuse to come. The government has no choice but to approve the import of workers for agriculture, construction and hotels. In the middle of 2021, some still believed that unpaid leave and the government subsidy was the explanation for the voluntary pampering of the unemployed and that after its abolition, everyone would storm the workplaces. How great were the surprise and disappointment when this did not happen?
Two years after corona became a fait accompli, tourism industry workers, hoteliers, tour guides, travel agents and aviation industry workers are clinging to their occupations. Surprisingly, they refuse to compromise, hoping that tomorrow morning they will return to their original occupation.