Oil prices edged higher on Monday, 26, as traders reacted to fresh signs of weather-related supply losses in the US.
“President Trump’s declaration of a US armada sailing toward Iran has reignited supply disruption fears, adding a risk premium to crude prices and supported risk-aversion flows more broadly this morning,” said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG. Tensions between Washington and Tehran underpinned the premium.
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that “The United States has a fleet heading toward Iran," but hopes he "will not have to use it."
A senior Iranian official warned Friday that Tehran would regard any attack as “an all-out war.”
JPMorgan analysts estimated that winter storm Fern cut US oil production by roughly 250,000 barrels per day, disrupting flows from the Bakken and from fields in Oklahoma and Texas.
“Oil prices are influenced this week by signs of production disruptions in the US,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova PTE Ltd, according to Investor.bg.
Taders still assessed a broader surplus despite the weather-driven rally, adding that the market appeared unlikely to tighten without deeper cuts from OPEC+ or other major producers. Prices had already been near multi-month highs at the end of last week.
Brent settled Friday at 64.41 dollars and WTI at 60.31 dollars, modestly higher week on week. Analysts projected that WTI would likely hover in the high-50 dollar range and Brent in the low-60s, with any weather-driven spikes expected to fade quickly.
FX Empire observed that rising geopolitical risks—from Iran, Venezuela, and strains between Saudi Arabia and the UAE—kept a risk premium in energy markets. A memo from DNB Carnegie said Brent prices firmed after Trump’s comments on Iran, as traders reduced short positions.
Political uncertainty in Venezuela also a factor
Political uncertainty in Venezuela also weighed on sentiment. The White House allowed Venezuelan barrels to flow to China, “but not at unfair, undercut prices."
The International Energy Agency raised its 2026 oil-demand growth outlook by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels, citing a weaker oversupply outlook and an improving global economy.
Russian-related flows remained under scrutiny.
India’s Reliance Industries would resume buying “sanctions-compliant” Russian crude after a month-long pause, leaving its 2025 average intake near 540,000 barrels per day. In the Mediterranean, the French navy intercepted a tanker carrying Russian oil in what Paris called a lawful operation, the same outlet reported.
With winter storms curbing North American output, naval deployments unsettling the Gulf, and policy moves reshaping Venezuelan production, traders balanced immediate supply threats against weak structural fundamentals for 2026.