Oil

Kharg Island, a tiny Persian Gulf outpost, controls nearly all of Iran’s oil exports, making it the regime’s key economic vulnerability.

Iran lost the first round badly. Its nuclear sites are rubble. Its air defenses are gone. The Revolutionary Guards have taken casualties they won't acknowledge for months.

"There is a wide feeling across the Gulf that Iran has crossed every red line with every Gulf country,” said Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center.

The threatening statements come even as Cuba and the United States have opened talks aimed at improving their largely adverse relations.

Russia's Foreign Ministry acknowledged that the vessel was adrift in the Mediterranean and said Russia's further involvement in resolving the situation depended on "concrete circumstances."

The potential capture of the oil depot would require, in a first for the ongoing US Operation Epic Fury, American troops to step foot on Iranian soil.

"The Iranians are managing to bring in money almost as usual," he said, arguing that the actual rise in energy markets is due to speculations and not an actual shortage.

One Trump adviser says tensions with Iran have historically added $5–$15 per barrel via risks to the Strait of Hormuz.

Jordan and Saudi Arabia confront direct security threats while Egypt faces financial pressure from disrupted trade, tourism, and energy markets.

Fires are still burning in parts of the island, with regime authorities insisting that operations at Iran's most critical oil export terminal must continue without interruption.