Is Israel beating its fourth COVID wave? ‘R’ drops to less than 1

Prof. Eran Segal: “There is a decrease in both the percentage of positive tests and the number of new severe patients.”

A technician collects swab samples for COVID-19, at a testing center run by the Tel Aviv municipality in cooperation with Tel haShomer hospital, at Rabin Square in Tel Aviv, on July 20, 2021. (photo credit: MIRIAM ALSTER/FLASH90)
A technician collects swab samples for COVID-19, at a testing center run by the Tel Aviv municipality in cooperation with Tel haShomer hospital, at Rabin Square in Tel Aviv, on July 20, 2021.
(photo credit: MIRIAM ALSTER/FLASH90)

The reproduction rate or “R” has dropped to 0.95, the Health Ministry reported Wednesday evening. 

The R is the number of people each sick person infects. At the beginning of the week, the R stood at 1.05, which already represented a decrease from the previous week.

Prof. Eran Segal, the computational biologist from the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the government, first revealed the good news in a Twitter post on Wednesday. 

He said that “the decrease is not due to fewer tests. The number of tests in the last two days is similar to that of a week ago. There is a decrease in both the percentage of positive tests and the number of new severe patients. Happy New Year to everyone.”

The Health Ministry reported 678 people in serious condition, including 171 who were intubated, on Wednesday evening. The number of total serious cases was only up by one since the Sunday before Rosh Hashanah. There were 17 new serious cases between midnight and press time.

There were 6,780 people diagnosed with coronavirus on Tuesday, the Health Ministry said, out of 95,155 who were screened - a 7.22% positivity rate.

The positivity rate before Rosh Hashanah was only 5.31%.

According to predictions made about two weeks ago by Hebrew University researchers, the coronavirus infection rate appears to be heading in the right direction. The team, which advises the coronavirus cabinet, said that if its most optimistic forecast comes true, by mid-October Israel will have only around 2,000 new daily cases. In a worst-case scenario, the country would have around 4,000 daily cases. 

“Just in time for the Jewish New Year, Israel presents: bending the curve,” Segal tweeted Monday. “Hope it continues.”

With the fourth wave appearing to come under control, tens of thousands of Israelis took advantage of the pleasant holiday weather and enjoyed walking and hiking in the country’s many national parks, according to Israel’s Nature and Parks Authority. Photos on social media showed families hanging out and enjoying the weather after the government ruled against locking down the country for Rosh Hashanah.

About 200,000 hikers visited the nature reserves and national parks over the holiday, the authority said. In addition, about 5,000 took advantage of sleeping in the night lots near the trails over Rosh Hashanah.

 A WOMAN RECEIVES her third anti-COVID vaccination at a Clalit Health Fund center in Jerusalem.  (credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST)
A WOMAN RECEIVES her third anti-COVID vaccination at a Clalit Health Fund center in Jerusalem. (credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST)

At the same time, police and passerby complained of traffic backups and long lines around some of the country’s coronavirus testing centers over the holiday. Media shared images of cars lined up with passengers waiting to get swabbed, some waiting as long as four hours.

Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz responded to the congestion in a Twitter message, informing the public that he had instructed the testing centers to stay open as late as midnight to accommodate those who wanted to get screened before returning to school and work the next day.

But the minister emphasized that the long lines were for PCR tests only.

“At the rapid testing complexes (antigen) there is no line, and you get your result on the spot. This test can also be used for the Green Pass,” Horowitz tweeted.

Efforts have been underway instead to increase vaccination, including a third shot, which has been proven to reduce the spread of infection. 

More than six million Israelis have received a first dose, 5.5 million a second dose, and nearly 2.7 million a third dose of the Pfizer vaccine.

Recent reports have shown that those who are not vaccinated are 25 times more likely to be infected with the virus than those who had a second booster. The third vaccine, according to reports, is 96% effective in preventing infection by the Delta variant, compared to two shots at 42%.

A 30-year-old unvaccinated pregnant woman who contracted coronavirus last week gave birth to a healthy baby while she was diagnosed as in moderate condition. Then, over the holiday, her condition rapidly deteriorated and her doctors at Emek Medical Center transferred her to the coronavirus intensive care unit at Carmel Medical Center, where she was connected to an ECMO machine. Nonetheless, her condition worsened, and she passed away on Wednesday, the hospital said. 

Just before the start of Rosh Hashanah, the Health Ministry updated the list of “red” “orange” and “yellow” countries, moving both Hungary and Singapore from yellow to orange. This means that unless people qualify as “fully vaccinated,” as per the ministry’s new definition, they will be required to be isolated for up to 14 days if returning to Israel from those countries. 

The list of red countries stayed the same and includes Bulgaria, Brazil, Mexico and Turkey.

The shortlist of yellow countries includes Austria, Bahrain, China, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Gabon, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Poland, Slovakia, Taiwan and Uruguay.

Any place not on the red or yellow list is orange.

Last week, the Health Ministry made a decision to exempt vaccinated and recovered Israelis from isolation after returning from “orange” countries, based on a new definition of “fully vaccinated” and recovered: individuals who have received a third shot of the Pfizer vaccine in Israel, have received two doses within the last six months, have recovered and received one dose of the vaccine; or have recovered within the last six months and/or been shown to have antibodies via a serological test.

People who qualify must be screened for the virus on landing and isolated until they receive a negative result or for 24 hours, whichever comes first.

THE EXEMPTION for those vaccinated only applies to those who were inoculated in Israel with the Pfizer vaccine. Anyone unvaccinated is required to be isolated for up to 14 days regardless of where they were arriving from."The Health Ministry is working to register those who were vaccinated abroad so that they can be treated as if they were vaccinated in Israel," a spokesperson for the Health Ministry told The Jerusalem Post. 

She said that a serological test for those vaccinated abroad can be used to verify vaccination in general, but that it cannot be used to differentiate between people who were vaccinated more than six months ago and therefore required to be isolated when entering Israel from an orange country.

"The documentation process is currently being built by the Health Ministry and upon completion will be made public," she said, noting that exceptions can be made for humanitarian reasons.

At the same time, the Tourism Ministry said Sunday that it will restart its tourist pilot program beginning September 19, allowing organized tourist groups of five to 30 tourists into the country. Visitors must have proof of a second shot of a vaccine approved by the Health Ministry within the last six months or receipt of a qualified third vaccination. 

The tourists will also have to present a negative PCR test, taken up to 72 hours before arrival, and will undergo a serological test on arrival at the airport.