The invasion of Ukraine and Iran's missile attacks are geopolitical omens - analysis

If the US is not responding as Putin devastates Ukraine, then what are the chances of it responding to an attack in northern Iraq that did not kill anyone and “only” left two people lightly injured?

 A column of smoke rises from burning fuel tanks that locals said were hit by five rockets at the Vasylkiv Air Base, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, outside Kyiv, Ukraine, March 12, 2022.  (photo credit: THOMAS PETER/REUTERS)
A column of smoke rises from burning fuel tanks that locals said were hit by five rockets at the Vasylkiv Air Base, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, outside Kyiv, Ukraine, March 12, 2022.
(photo credit: THOMAS PETER/REUTERS)

Russian President Vladimir Putin can bomb cities in Ukraine with impunity because he knows the US is not going to put “boots on the ground” to stop him.

Sanctions, yes. Troops, no. US President Joe Biden has said as much several times since the Russian invasion began on February 24.

The world, including Iran, is watching.

On Sunday morning, 12 ballistic missiles were fired – apparently from Iran – toward the massive new US Consulate being constructed in Erbil, capital of the Kurdistan Region in northern Iraq. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps took credit, saying they were retaliation for the killing of two IRGC officers in Syria during an attack last week attributed to Israel. Iran’s state-run Press TV said the missiles hit “Mossad bases in Erbil.”

If the US is not responding as Putin devastates Ukraine, then what are the chances of it responding to an attack in northern Iraq that did not kill anyone and “only” left two people lightly injured?

 Russia's President Vladimir Putin (L), who arrived to attend the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), meets with Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, Iran, November 23, 2015.  (credit: ALEXEI DRUZHININ/SPUTNIK/KREMLIN/FILE PHOTO VIA REUTERS) Russia's President Vladimir Putin (L), who arrived to attend the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), meets with Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, Iran, November 23, 2015. (credit: ALEXEI DRUZHININ/SPUTNIK/KREMLIN/FILE PHOTO VIA REUTERS)

But this is a test.

Iran is furious and frustrated that the nuclear deal it has been negotiating for the last 11 months has stalled just as it was about to be signed, lifting sanctions and providing Tehran with a windfall of badly needed sanctions relief worth tens of billions of dollars. A furious and frustrated Iran is, as a result, lashing out.

The attack on Erbil was meant to send a message to the US and the West: “Ukraine is not your only headache – remember us. Remember us, and complete the new nuclear deal. Otherwise, we can cause trouble.”

In other words, Iran is falling back on its time-tested modus operandi: When all else fails, sow chaos.

It is ironic that Russia is holding up the agreement while looking for guarantees from the US that the newly clamped sanctions on it won’t apply to its dealings with Iran – guarantees the US will not supply. The Iranians badly want the deal, and the US is very keen on signing it. But now Russian demands – born of its invasion of Ukraine – are holding it up.

RUSSIAN PARATROOPERS run toward aircraft during an operation said to take control of an airfield, in this still image taken from a video released by the Russian Defense Ministry on Saturday. (credit: Russian Defense Ministry/Reuters)RUSSIAN PARATROOPERS run toward aircraft during an operation said to take control of an airfield, in this still image taken from a video released by the Russian Defense Ministry on Saturday. (credit: Russian Defense Ministry/Reuters)

And what is Iran going to do against Russia for holding up the deal? Absolutely nothing, afraid of the consequences that could trigger. But to act against the US – using Israel as an excuse – is far less risky.

While Washington may not respond militarily to this most recent Iranian provocation, that does not mean it will not have some ripple effect.

US Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Virginia), already very skeptical of the emerging deal, on Sunday tweeted she was continuing to monitor reports of an attack on the consulate in Erbil.

“If reports are accurate, the Biden Administration must withdraw its negotiations with Iran,” she tweeted. “We cannot re-enter a failed JCPOA [the Iranian nuclear agreement formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action] to further empower Iran and threaten global security.”

Luria put her finger on the problem: If this is how Iran behaves in the region now, imagine what they will do flush with billions of dollars in sanctions relief cash.

Iran's Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi (3rd R) walks during a ceremony to unveil Iran's medium range anti-aircraft air defense system Mersad (Ambush) in Tehran, April 11, 2010. (credit: REUTERS/VAHID ALAEE/DEFENCE MINISTRY/HANDOUT)Iran's Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi (3rd R) walks during a ceremony to unveil Iran's medium range anti-aircraft air defense system Mersad (Ambush) in Tehran, April 11, 2010. (credit: REUTERS/VAHID ALAEE/DEFENCE MINISTRY/HANDOUT)

Even before the attack on Erbil, Luria spearheaded a bipartisan letter of 21 fellow representatives, 12 Democrats and nine Republicans, sent to Biden last week, warning that they cannot support an agreement “along the lines being publicly discussed.”

“Without adequately addressing Iran’s role as the world’s leading state-sponsor of terror – which was noticeably absent from the 2015 JCPOA – and simultaneously providing billions of dollars in sanction relief, the United States would be providing a clear path for Iranian proxies to continue funding terrorism,” the letter read.

The Erbil attack only strengthens their point.

Will this letter stop Biden from signing if the Russians remove their obstacle to the agreement? No. But it will provide the president with an additional headache when he wants to sell it to the American people.

BUT IT is not only the congresswoman from Virginia noting that the Iranians will get the reward of a nuclear accord without needing to moderate by one iota their malevolent behavior in the region. The Arab world is taking note as well.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi gestures as he speaks at Tehran's Friday prayer on the occasion of the 43rd anniversary of the Islamic Revolution of Iran in Tehran, Iran, February 11, 2022. (credit: PRESIDENT WEBSITE/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY)/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi gestures as he speaks at Tehran's Friday prayer on the occasion of the 43rd anniversary of the Islamic Revolution of Iran in Tehran, Iran, February 11, 2022. (credit: PRESIDENT WEBSITE/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY)/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)

But the way various Arab states are articulating their displeasure is not through polite letters to Biden, but rather by less than enthusiastic support of the US and the West in the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

For instance, Saudi Arabia has refused US requests to increase oil output to bring down prices that have risen dramatically since the outbreak of the war because of a gap in supplies from Russia. The UAE, meanwhile, has sent out mixed signals on the matter.

Why would these long-time US allies be acting in such a manner?

When it comes to Saudi Arabia, it has to do with a deep anger at the US for the way it has related to the country since the 2018 murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey. Biden, on the campaign trail in 2020, pledged to make Saudi Arabia the “pariah state that they are.” Since taking office, he has refused to talk to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The Saudis are offended, and their response to the Russian-Ukraine crisis reflects that.

As for the other Gulf countries, foremost the UAE, they are annoyed at the US and Europe for pushing the nuclear deal through, though they have been far less vocal in their opposition to the deal than Israel. A lack of enthusiastic support now for America and Europe is one way of demonstrating their disapproval.

 An external view shows hotel ‘Ukraine’ destroyed during an air strike, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in central Chernihiv, Ukraine March 12, 2022.  (credit: REUTERS/OLEH HOLOVATENKO) An external view shows hotel ‘Ukraine’ destroyed during an air strike, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in central Chernihiv, Ukraine March 12, 2022. (credit: REUTERS/OLEH HOLOVATENKO)

For months, the Emirates and Saudi Arabia have been targeted by drones, rockets and missiles delivered by Iran’s Houthi proxies in Yemen. The concern in the Gulf is that an agreement now with Iran – and an infusion of sanctions relief cash – will just make more of that possible.

The Erbil ballistic-missile attack is a reminder that these concerns are far from being the product of paranoid minds.