Abrupt cuts to development aid by major donor countries could cause up to 22.6 million additional deaths in developing countries by 2030, including 5.4 million children under five, according to a new study by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) and other organizations.
The warning comes as the United States, Britain, Germany, and France have each reduced development aid for the first time in nearly three decades and are planning further cuts in 2025. The ISGlobal study said continued cuts could reverse decades of progress in global health and poverty reduction.
The global health research center's report, a copy of which was viewed by Reuters, examined data from 93 low- and middle-income countries to estimate the impact of further reductions in official development assistance (ODA) in 2025, on top of sharp cuts over the past five years.
It concluded that a severe reduction in that assistance would lead to 22.6 million additional deaths, including 5.4 million children under five, by 2030, significantly higher than the research institute had estimated in a previous study that focused on US cuts.
The authors modeled both a severe and a mild scenario for future aid cuts, along with one that would have maintained 2023 funding levels.
A severe reduction would involve cuts of up to 25% in the poorest countries and 28% in sub-Saharan Africa. A mild scenario with less severe cuts could result in 9.4 million preventable deaths, including 2.5 million children under five, they said.
The abrupt withdrawal leaves little scope for the implementation of adaptive strategies
Human rights and development experts have warned that US President Donald Trump's moves to dismantle USAID and sharply cut its development aid - moves that have been mirrored in other countries - will cause increases in preventable deaths.
The study released on Monday by a coalition of health and development organizations builds on previous research published in The Lancet medical journal in June, which estimated deep cuts to the US Agency for International Development could result in more than 14 million additional deaths by 2030.
The new study, which has been submitted to The Lancet for peer review, noted that if the US, Britain, Germany, and France make further reductions in 2025, it would be the first time that all four countries have cut ODA simultaneously for two consecutive years.
"This abrupt withdrawal leaves little scope for the implementation of adaptive strategies," the authors wrote.
Britain, France, the Netherlands, and Belgium announced aid cuts of 40%, 37%, 30% and 25%, respectively, the study noted. The loss of aid for developing countries threatens to reverse three decades of unprecedented gains in health, education, and poverty reduction, the authors warned.