Dr. Menachem Lazar, Maariv's pollster and CEO of Lazar Research, said on Thursday, that the outcome of Israel's upcoming elections could be determined at the last moment by small parties hovering around the electoral threshold, potentially leaving neither political bloc able to form a government.
Speaking on 103FM, Lazar analyzed the latest election polls and outlined the factors he believes could determine the outcome of the vote.
"Things will be decided at the very last moment, probably because of the two small parties hovering above and below the electoral threshold, Winter's party and the Hendel-Zelekha party," Lazar said.
"We cannot know what will actually happen. If Winter fails to cross the electoral threshold, the balance shifts more toward the opposition. If Hendel and Zelekha fail to cross, the picture shifts more toward the coalition bloc."
Lazar warned that such a scenario could leave Israel facing another political deadlock.
"Then we may reach a situation where we are stuck, no one manages to form a government, and we head to another election," he said. "No one can say for certain that this will happen."
Israeli election polls show few voters switching between political blocs
Lazar said approximately 5% to 6% of voters remain undecided, a potentially significant proportion in an election where a single Knesset seat could affect the balance of power.
"There are still undecided voters, around 5% to 6%. That may sound like a little or a lot, but in Israel, every mandate can be decisive," he said.
However, Lazar emphasized that most undecided voters are choosing between parties within the same political bloc rather than considering a switch to the opposing camp.
"The undecided voters are not choosing between blocs. They are generally choosing between one party and another within the same bloc," he explained.
"There is almost no movement between the blocs. The public has already made up its mind."
According to Lazar, voters' positions on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are largely fixed, limiting the ability of election campaigns to shift support between political camps.
"Those who support Netanyahu support him in one way or another, and those who oppose him oppose him in one way or another," he said.
"If the campaigns have any influence, it is on whether people actually go out and vote."
Lazar says voter turnout could influence Knesset seat distribution
Addressing the possibility of a tie between the political blocs, Lazar said such an outcome currently appeared relatively unlikely, although changes in political alliances could alter the picture.
"At the moment, that seems quite far off, unless there are politicians who end up eating their words, and we have seen cases like that before," he said.
Lazar noted that including the Hendel-Zelekha party in the so-called change bloc would bring it to 58 Knesset seats, placing it close to the 61-seat majority needed to form a government.
"If you add Hendel and Zelekha to the change bloc, that brings it to 58 mandates, and that is already on the threshold," he said.
"An unusually high voter turnout on that side could tip the balance. I think we've already seen everything."
Opposition lacks undisputed leader, pollster says
In a Friday interview with 103FM, Lazar added that Netanyahu's coalition bloc is significantly more optimistic about winning the upcoming elections than the opposition
The coalition camp is much more optimistic about winning than the opposition camp," Lazar said. "Both blocs have a party that may or may not cross the electoral threshold. In a previous Walla poll, one of them failed to cross, and the result shifted in the opposite direction."
Lazar also pointed to differences in leadership between the two political camps.
"In the coalition camp, there is one undisputed leader, and that is Benjamin Netanyahu. In the opposition camp, there isn't," he emphasized.
Pollster says Yair Golan's remarks on religion unlikely to shift voters between blocs
Lazar also addressed comments by Democrats chairman Yair Golan concerning the removal of religion from the public sphere, arguing that Jewish traditions remain deeply embedded in Israeli society.
"The overwhelming majority of Israelis are traditional to one degree or another," Lazar said. "Even secular Israelis celebrate the Passover Seder, Rosh Hashanah, and light candles on Hanukkah."
"Israel is a Jewish state in one sense or another, even in the way holidays are observed," he added.
However, Lazar said Golan's remarks were unlikely to push voters toward the opposing political bloc.
"A statement like that won't drive votes to the other side. It might drive votes away from Yair Golan to other parties within the same bloc," he explained.
Lazar emphasized that his analysis was based on polling results rather than personal political preferences.
"Sometimes I like the results more, and sometimes less, but those are the results. After checking myself again and again, that is what comes out."