In an interview hosted by Anat Davidov and Udi Segal on radio 103FM last week, Ilan Lotan, a former senior Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) official, addressed the ongoing war in Gaza and the assassination of top Hamas official Marwan Issa.
"It is important to mention that this morning could have opened with much harsher headlines, with Marwan Issa becoming a secondary headline, were it not for the elimination of a terrorist who was already on his way to carry out an attack in the center of the country," Lotan said at the beginning of his remarks.
"I'm just giving a glimpse of what has been brewing in the greater Jerusalem area for quite some time. Fortunately for us, this attack was thwarted, like hundreds of other attacks. Assuming that he was indeed killed, and it may take a long time before we know for sure that he was, I don't think this will affect the tactical level of the battle currently being waged in the Gaza Strip.
"Marwan was actually the strategist who led Hamas's military directive," he added. "In the long run, he was supposed to deal with the rehabilitation or the rebuilding of Hamas's military capabilities. So, this is a very significant assassination. Another thing is the same pressure that is constantly talked about in relation to Yahya Sinwar... well, Sinwar understands, even as he remains deep underground, that the next missile with his name on it is on its way. Still, since October 7, I have been very cautious in my assessments about what is really going on in the minds of the top two – Sinwar and Mohammed Deif."
Can Israel achieve "absolute victory" in Gaza?
Lotan was then asked where the operation was headed, given Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's declarations that "absolute victory" must be achieved.
"I don't know what the definition of absolute victory is, " Lotan replied. "Does it mean until the last member of Hamas is dead? I don't think that's possible. If we pay attention to the defense minister's recent statements, he said explicitly that terrorism will continue and that Hamas activists will still exist. Victory means dismantling the frameworks about targeted killings – this is much more realistic.
"Absolute victory is a slogan that looks good on a hat. If you want to fight an idea, you must create an alternative one instead. I don't see a situation where doves of peace fly over the Gaza Strip without being shot down and eaten. I don't know what absolute victory is," Lotan said.
He also referred to the US naval dock concerning Gaza: "The central question is whether they will build a quay, bring in merchandise. The moment goods arrive on shore – who is in charge of their intake? Who is responsible for distributing the commodities in an organized manner? Ultimately, the question is, when the equipment comes, who receives it? Who distributes it to the residents? There are two eventualities, both polar opposites of each other, that I believe the absolute majority of Israelis, including in the Israeli government, think must never come to pass: Hamas continues to rule; allow a form of a civil administration to return to be in charge of the Gaza Strip. Either outcome has enormous implications. I cannot envision a situation where Israel controls civil affairs in Gaza. Just think about the rehabilitation of Gaza. It will cost billions of dollars. I do not see Israel being in charge of that, and I hope not."
To conclude, Lotan clarified "I do not see a situation where we can ultimately defeat Hamas without entering, occupying, and cleansing Rafah. Seems impossible to me."