The MIND Israel think tank and Lebanese-American news site This is Beirut held the first-ever formal Lebanese-Israeli civil society panel at the Munich Security Conference this week.
“The very fact that this event took place signals a willingness on both sides to pursue a different path,” MIND Israel founder Maj.-Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin told The Jerusalem Post on Wednesday, and it is “a small but meaningful first step toward reversing decades of hostility, based on the understanding that war is not inevitable,”
The event, titled “Conversation on Regional Integration: Perspectives in the Middle East,” looked at Lebanon and Israel in the aftermath of the Israel-Hamas War. It focused on Hezbollah’s disarmament, ongoing indirect talks between Lebanon and Israel, and the broader prospects for regional integration.
This is Beirut is based outside of the country, but nevertheless, it remains closely connected to audiences inside Lebanon and has a strong grasp of the public mood and the views of Lebanon’s diverse society, Yadlin said.
Unfortunately, MIND Israel is unable to collaborate directly with Lebanese citizens due to Lebanese criminal law, which prohibits Lebanese citizens from having any contact or engagement with Israelis, he said.
About 40% of Lebanese support normalization with Israel, according to a recent poll released by the Council for a Secure America on Tuesday. That number is significantly higher than a previous survey suggested and indicates “genuine openness to change despite existing legal constraints,” Yadlin said.
Normalization with Lebanon is realistic if both countries act in accordance with their core national interests and do not allow Iranian interests to dictate their policies, he said.
“Yes, Hezbollah must be weakened for the Lebanese government to move toward normalization, and this will happen – either by Israel, through another military operation targeting its key power centers, or preferably, by a Lebanese state strong enough to do so itself,” he added. “But until that becomes possible, there is significant value in [laying the groundwork].”
Israel can build trust with Lebanon through measures such as official statements, clarifying that Israel has no territorial claims against Lebanon, Yadlin said.
Lebanon can generate confidence by repealing the Lebanese criminal law that prohibits contact with Israelis and, at the civil level, by promoting people-to-people dialogue such as the event in Munich, he said.
“Steps like these can help weaken Hezbollah’s political hold in Lebanon, because one of its central justifications for keeping its weapons is the claim that it is needed to defend Lebanon from Israel,” he added.
Regarding territorial claims, Yadlin said Israel must first have its security concerns guaranteed.
“Israel cannot accept the continued presence of Hezbollah’s terrorist army on its border,” he said. “Southern Lebanon must be demilitarized of weapons and cleared of Hezbollah terrorists. This is a central lesson of [the October 7 massacre], and it is nonnegotiable.
“The threat posed by Hezbollah’s precision missiles is also something Israel cannot live with. Therefore, as long as Hezbollah is not dismantled, and the Lebanese government cannot confront it on its own, it is essential that Israel retain freedom of action in Lebanon to counter these threats.”
War creates window of opportunity
THE RECENT war has created a window of opportunity, Yadlin said.
“The war has reshaped the regional landscape and dealt a severe blow to Iran’s axis of evil,” he said. “Hezbollah – long the most important and threatening actor in that network – was defeated in its war with Israel.
“That military defeat also created conditions for political change inside Lebanon. It helped pave the way for a more moderate, pragmatic leadership that seeks to restore sovereignty and a state monopoly over weapons and to put Lebanon back on a path of growth after years of political paralysis and economic crisis.”
The international community, especially the US, should leverage the current climate to deepen diplomatic pressure on the government of Lebanon and intensify the financial campaign against Hezbollah’s financial networks, Yadlin said.
Furthermore, it is important to increase US involvement in supporting the Lebanese Armed Forces and to mobilize as many positive actors as possible – including, European countries, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE – to lead the reconstruction process in southern Lebanon, he said.
“The goal is to ensure the area is not rebuilt with Iranian money, which would allow Hezbollah to re-entrench itself in those areas,” he added.
“This window of opportunity will not remain open for a long time,” Yadlin said, adding that Hezbollah is already recovering with the help of Iranian money and is rebuilding its military strength.
Regarding what the next five years could look like for Israel-Lebanon relations if normalization fails, he said: “The more relevant question here is not whether normalization will fail, but whether Lebanon will be able to return to a positive trajectory and uproot Iranian influence and Hezbollah’s grip – an influence that has brought destruction on the country time and again.”
Nevertheless, Yadlin said he was optimistic, “because the major shift has already happened.”
“Sooner or later, Israel and Lebanon will bring their state of hostility to an end, and if my optimism is premature, it will become relevant after another round of fighting that further weakens Hezbollah,” he said.
This is Beirut said the Munich event “carried significant symbolic weight.”
“At a time of heightened polarization across the Middle East, the cooperation between a Lebanese and an Israeli organization at one of the world’s most prominent security forums underscored a growing recognition that dialogue and regional integration are no longer abstract aspirations but strategic imperatives,” it said in a press release. “While profound political and security obstacles remain, the panel signaled that civil society actors are increasingly willing to test new frameworks for engagement, even amid ongoing tensions.”