As the war continues with no clear end in sight, speculation has grown over whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plans to move up the date for Israel’s upcoming elections, using Operation Roaring Lion as leverage to boost his polling prospects.
The timing of the elections will “heavily depend” on the results of the war and can cause the date to be moved up, Prof. Gideon Rahat, a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute’s Political Reform Program, told The Jerusalem Post on Wednesday.
Elections are currently scheduled for the end of October, at the latest. As an expert in political science, Rahat laid out the strategic considerations that could influence both the timing and the outcome of the elections.
The idea that war could boost polling has long been part of political considerations. However, Rahat cautioned that the reality was more complex.
“The pattern in wars is that at the beginning there’s support and enthusiasm, and gradually it declines because people don’t see a way out, and it’s unclear whether you’re actually winning like you’re being told,” he explained.
“The Iranians aren’t replacing their regime. Hezbollah is taking heavy blows but keeps firing. So, slowly, enthusiasm declines. People lose patience, especially when unrealistic expectations were set, and that’s what’s happening now.”
War buys time but clouds election plans
The state budget vote at the end of the month had seemed like a potential opening for early elections, with the haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties threatening to vote against it over the conscription bill that the government had been advancing. By law, if the budget fails to pass, elections are automatically triggered.
However, the prime minister announced that the controversial conscription legislation would be set aside for wartime unity, reducing immediate tensions within the coalition and increasing the likelihood that the budget will pass.
Rahat noted that, in this case, the war was able to “buy Netanyahu more time, and, politically, it’s quite a successful maneuver.”
He also explained that leaving elections until October could be harmful to Netanyahu, as the date would coincide with three years since the October 7 Hamas massacre in 2023.
The proximity of October 7 to the elections could create negative associations for voters, Rahat pointed out.
Investigating government failures on October 7 has become a central issue uniting opposition parties. Netanyahu’s rivals have increasingly called for a change in leadership following the massacre, as well as for a state commission of inquiry into the government’s handling of October 7, which the political echelon has repeatedly blocked.
Reports have speculated that elections could be moved up to the summer, around June, which Rahat said had initially appeared to him to be the most strategic timing.
However, he noted that his assessment has shifted since the war began, as an unsuccessful outcome if the war ends near summertime could also harm Netanyahu’s polling.
Recent polling since the start of the war has not shown a dramatic shift in support for the prime minister’s Likud party.
“The polls didn’t move much,” Rahat said.
Over-promising on matters such as regime change in Iran and victory over Hezbollah could ultimately drive voters away from Netanyahu, he suggested.
He concluded that the prime minister’s main strategy was to do “whatever it takes” to stay in power.
As long as the war continues without a decisive outcome, the question of whether Netanyahu will opt for early elections remains open, Rahat said.