Can Gaza talks lead to Israeli-Palestinian negotiations? - analysis
On Sunday, Egypt held a series of simultaneous but separate conversations with Israelis and Palestinians, with the plan to also speak with Hamas in Gaza this week.
By TOVAH LAZAROFFGerman Foreign Minister and Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi visit at the site where a missile fired by Palestinian militants in Gaza hit a residential building in the central Israeli town of Petah Tikva, May 20, 2021.(photo credit: AVSHALOM SASSONI/FLASH90)
Suddenly, out of nowhere, everyone is talking.Two weeks ago, rockets streaked through the skies. Now, dignitaries are the ones doing the flying.On Sunday, Egypt held a series of simultaneous but separate conversations with Israelis and Palestinians, with the plan to also speak with Hamas in Gaza this week.Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi visited his counterpart, Sameh Shoukry, in Cairo. The last Israeli foreign minister to make such a trip was Tzipi Livni some 13 years ago.The head of Egypt’s General Intelligence Service (GIS), Abbas Kamel, met with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, and an Egyptian delegation, possibly headed by Kamel, is also scheduled to speak with Hamas this week.Such conversations, even if not aimed at a two-state solution, would mark the most substantive engagement between the two sides on a diplomatic track since April 2014, when the Obama administration-led peace process broke down.It’s also the first time that Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has brokered such high-level negotiations on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.When the 2014 Gaza war was raging, Sisi had just come to power following a number of years of instability in Egypt, and he could not have undertaken such a task. Now, he is in a better position to flex his diplomatic muscles, particularly with the backing of the United States and the international community.Already one could argue that the Egyptian-led talks, regardless of the outcome, are themselves an enormous achievement.On the table is Gaza and the 11-day IDF-Hamas war that ended on May 21. A two-state resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not on the table.Egypt is now attempting to prevent a cyclical outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Hamas that have helped stymie any progress toward a two-state solution and have kept Israeli and Palestinian civilians fearing outbreaks of military bombardments.The outcome could include weakening Hamas militarily, empowering Abbas by restoring some of his authority in Gaza, rescinding many of the restrictions on the flow of goods and people at the crossings and even, possibly, a prisoner swap for the release of Israeli hostages.It’s a long-shot gamble, given that Hamas has little immediate incentive to make any substantive changes. The talks also come at the most inopportune moment politically for Israel, given the uncertainty regarding the fate of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, which could be replaced by one led by Yesh Atid’s Yair Lapid.When Obama initiated Israeli-Palestinian talks, first in 2010 and then in 2013-2014, he side-stepped the issue of Hamas, which has forcibly ruled Gaza since it ousted Fatah in a bloody coup in 2007.Any final-status agreement for a two-state resolution to the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict, however, would have to include Gaza.For a two-state solution to work when Hamas is in charge of Gaza, it would have to agree to the deal, which would mean recognizing Israel and relinquishing its goal of destroying it. That scenario seems implausible.At best, Obama, and then the Trump administration, as well as the international community, had hoped that the PA would find a way to heal its rift with Hamas and regain control of Gaza.Now, Egypt and the international community appear to have come to the conclusion that Abbas cannot do it alone and that Israel can’t conquer Gaza and then hand it to him.Egypt, however, can help create conditions that could minimize Hamas’s threat in Gaza and thereby help remove one of the Achilles’ heels to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.Should it be successful, it would provide results at a moment when direct Israeli-Palestinian talks appear to be impossible and when violence threatens to overwhelm diplomacy.US President Joe Biden entered office believing that at best, he would maintain the status quo. It was a line that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken held to during his visit last week, in which he spoke to all the players, save Hamas. This included Israel, the PA, Jordan and Egypt.Such results could create a momentum of their own and challenge all those involved to rise to the occasion. Once, it was believed that Gaza would be the last and most difficult sphere of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.Now, it is the one sphere where diplomacy is occurring with regard to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It opens the door to speculation that success in Gaza could also create a formula that could lead to wider Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.
