The IDF on Tuesday morning issued its largest evacuation order yet for Gaza City.
The scope and immediacy of the order signaled that the military’s full-scale invasion may finally be close.
Past evacuation orders were localized in a specific area or used wording that suggested that an invasion was coming soon but was less imminent.
To date, Israeli political and military officials have spent weeks encouraging Palestinian civilians to evacuate Gaza City, but only around 100,000 out of around one million have left, leaving the timing of the invasion in question.
Hamas blocks Palestinians from evacuating
A senior defense official has said that Hamas actively blocks many Palestinian civilians from evacuating.
At the start of the war in October 2023, the IDF spent around three weeks pounding Gaza City and nearby areas with aerial bombardments and artillery and tank fire before sending five divisions (between 25,000-50,000) of ground forces in, along with a much larger group of forces that surrounded portions of Gaza.
So far, the IDF has increased its pace of targeting large high-rises in Gaza City but has not yet struck the area with the same level of bombardment. War plans have disclosed that the IDF plans to use up to five divisions again in the full-scale invasion, although some of that may depend on the degree of Hamas resistance.
In October and November 2023, Hamas resisted heavily with around 10,000 terrorists, more than half of whom were killed by the IDF in a short period. However, the terror group has not put up a large-scale defense against an Israeli invasion since the battles of Khan Yunis from December 2023 to February 2024.
Rather, it has been fighting a guerrilla-style war of small terror cells carrying out localized ambushes, such that the five divisions may not be necessary in the end.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that taking over Gaza City will convince Hamas to give up the remaining hostages and will lead to the group’s defeat.
Much of the IDF disagrees and believes that even if taking over the city will harm Hamas’s overall strength, the group will manage to continue its guerilla-style tactics.
It also says that the invasion may lead to deaths of Israeli hostages and that the cost to soldiers who will die, Palestinian civilians who may get caught in the crossfire, and the potential worsening of the humanitarian situation will harm Israeli legitimacy more than the operation’s expected gains.
Gaza Humanitarian Forum stated: “The forced displacement of an entire population – including children, the elderly, and people with disabilities – after months of deteriorating health conditions, food insecurity, and even malnutrition, into overcrowded areas lacking the resources to absorb them, only heightens the risk to their health and to public health overall.
“Such sweeping evacuations deepen the humanitarian crisis and may also undermine the possibility of creating safe and agreed conditions for the release of the hostages held by Hamas. The only viable solution is the establishment of a humanitarian space that meets international standards for the reception of displaced populations, enabling UN agencies, experienced in this field of work, to prepare.”
Palestinian reports have said there has been a spike in civilian deaths in recent days, with some dozens being killed on Monday. Those reports do not seriously distinguish between civilians and combatants, but the IDF also has not put out any counter statements in recent days.
There were mixed reports later on Tuesday that larger numbers of Palestinian civilians were starting to leave Gaza City, but there were also contrary reports that large volumes of civilians were staying put.
The IDF had not given a latest update as of press time.