US President Donald Trump's decision to sell Saudi Arabia F-35 aircraft without normalization with Israel as a condition signals the long-term “grave-danger” to the state of American-Israeli relations, former IDF intelligence Tamir Hayman said on Wednesday.
Speaking at the UVID Drone Tech conference in Tel Aviv, Hayman said that in the broader outlook post-war, “long-term relations with the US are in…grave danger.”
He said that Jerusalem’s special military relations, diplomatic relations, and the overall unique relationship are all in play due to the weakening of bi-partisan support for the Jewish state across the board.
“This is surprising, because we are in the era of great relations with Trump. But all of the political and social US trends are that Israel is becoming a politicized issue connected to disagreement,” which could end broader American support for Israel.
The former IDF intelligence chief and current Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) executive director said that it used to be that the pathway to Washington was through Jerusalem, but that the White House meeting between Trump and Saudi ruler Mohammed Bin Salman “changed US relations with the Middle East.”
In the past, he stated that the Saudis were more important than Israel in the economic sphere, but that in the security sphere, Washington always guaranteed the advantage for Israel’s security quality.
Imagine how much worse things could get with a new president
“When Trump made the comparison between Israel and the Saudis getting the same [F-35 aircraft] and getting the same quality, this changed the norm. If this happens in a time of the best relations with the US,” imagine how much worse things could get in a time with a new president who is less supportive of Israel and with a broader public which is less supportive.
Regarding Iran, Hayman stated that, “If Iran rebuilds their nuclear program, I don’t see another choice other than to attack again,” noting that Israel’s June strikes on Tehran’s nuclear program were a tremendous success in many ways.
However, he added that the June war with the Islamic Republic, “didn’t change the leadership of Iran, which still wants to destroy Israel, and is very determined and sophisticated,” he said, adding that the attack “gained time, but did not solve the problem.”
Next, he warned that the Iranians “will try to build back better and bigger” if economic, diplomatic, and military tools do not successfully cause the regime to implode.
In that light, Hayman said that Israel should strive to get Trump to seal a new nuclear deal with the Iranians during his remaining three years in office.
He said that the alternative could be an Iranian nuclear deal that could be much worse under the next US president, who may rush in for a deal just to get the issues off their table and to differentiate themselves from Trump.
The former IDF intelligence chief cautioned that while it was positive that Israel might now have the capability to intervene against Iran’s nuclear program at earlier phases than before, since it had already destroyed much of its advanced anti-air defenses, the country also now realizes that another round with Iran would involve significant harm to the home front.
Hayman stated that he was not sure whether Israel’s civilian population was ready for such another intense round anytime in the near future.
Likewise, Hayman predicted that Israel may be closer than ever to another round of larger fights with Hezbollah in Lebanon, but he expressed concern that this could lead to an unending series of “rounds” with the group, as used to happen between Israel and Hamas.
Unlike Hamas, which Israel believed it had the power and diplomatic backing to try to dismantle completely as a military entity, Jerusalem never believed it had that capacity with Hezbollah, and did not try to do so during the war.
Rather, the government’s goal was to evict Hezbollah from southern Lebanon, to heavily reduce its precision missile capabilities, and to prevent it from restoring its arsenal to its pre-war numbers of over 150,000 rockets.
Accordingly, Hayman suggested that Israel must find a way to use the threat of military action to get sufficient diplomatic pressure on Hezbollah to convince the Lebanese-based terrorist group that it must cease its rearmament process.