Two polls were published on Sunday, one by Mano Geva for Channel 12 and the other by Shlomo Filber’s Direct Polls for Channel 14.
Filber’s poll is worth noting for two reasons. First, his poll included more than 1,500 respondents and thus has a smaller margin of error than the Geva poll, which included only 500 respondents. Second, Filber’s polls consistently predict more favorable outcomes for the bloc of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Without delving into the reasons for this, the fact that Netanyahu is weakening in Filber’s polls is significant.
Filber’s current poll has the Likud at 30 seats (down from its current 32), MK Benny Gantz’s National Unity at 29 (way up from its current 12), and Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid at 14 (down from 24). The current coalition parties poll at 57 seats.
Filber’s previous poll on March 28 had the coalition at 58 seats, Gantz at 23 and Lapid at 19. A poll on March 16 had the coalition at 60, Lapid at 23 and Gantz at 15.
More than any specific poll, though, what matters are the trends: The coalition is trending down, Yesh Atid is trending down, and Gantz is soaring.
More remarkable is the following: 49% in Filber’s poll said that Gantz was more appropriate to serve as prime minister than Netanyahu, while 43% believed the opposite.
Gantz, along with his party’s numbers two and three, MKs Gideon Sa’ar and Gadi Eisenkot, has been leading a middle-of-the-road approach to the government’s proposed judicial overhaul. The National Unity leader, from the outset, expressed his interest in negotiation, on the condition that the coalition freeze its legislation. For over two months, the coalition ignored this condition and demanded that the opposition enter the talks without any preconditions.
Tens of thousands of Israelis from the right-wing camp seem to have concluded that the coalition had gone too far and that Gantz’s approach made sense. It is hard to imagine true good-faith negotiations happening while the subject of the negotiations continues to advance in the Knesset.
Lapid eventually echoed Gantz’s call for talks, but his rhetoric along the way was more fiery. His speeches centered around harsh criticism of the government. Gantz also criticized the government harshly, but the central themes of his speeches were more conciliatory, and included calls for broad agreement and for finding a middle path. Many from the Yesh Atid camp seem to have felt that Gantz’s approach was better than Lapid’s.
Another interesting part of Filber’s poll was that a party led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett would win eight seats. Four of these would come from Gantz, two from Lapid and two from Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party. This indicates that there are a fair number of Smotrich voters who are unhappy with the government but view Gantz as being too far to the Left.
How could the polls affect Netanyahu, Gantz and Lapid going forward?
How could the polls affect Netanyahu, Gantz and Lapid going forward?
Gantz would be wise not to change much. The line he has consistently taken since January is proving to be very popular.
Netanyahu has increasingly begun to vocally support broad consensus on the proposed judicial overhaul and is even beginning to describe it as if it was his idea in the first place. This, for example, was the direction he took in an interview on NBC News earlier this week.
The prime minister is likely to take advantage of his upcoming Remembrance Day and Independence Day speeches to project a softer, more conciliatory message. Netanyahu is handcuffed by his coalition partners, however, since too much of a conciliatory approach could draw criticism and eventually threats from his partners on the far Right. He will need to maintain this balance going forward.
Lapid is also likely to shift slightly toward Gantz’s more conciliatory rhetoric, but not much. Lapid is not Gantz. He is more charismatic and has less of Gantz’s fortitude. For the most part, Lapid is likely to continue his harsh criticism of the government while engaging alongside Gantz in negotiations at the President’s Residence. Attempts to win back what he has lost to Gantz will likely begin at a slightly later stage.