Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party dropped by three seats in a Lazar Research survey published by Maariv on Friday.
The survey, conducted at the end of Netanyahu’s visit to the United States and reports of progress towards a hostage deal and a ceasefire in Gaza, showed that Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party could still pass the electoral threshold, largely at the expense of Likud. Since the survey was performed, hostage talks have stalled, The Jerusalem Post reported Thursday.
In the opposition bloc, this week saw a notable weakening of Yesh Atid, which dropped by two seats, leaving it with seven. However, these votes remain within the opposition parties, where there is a notable strengthening of Naftali Bennett's party, temporarily named Bennett 2026, as well as Yisrael Beytenu and Blue and White, each gaining one seat.
The result of these changes was a stalemate: Netanyahu’s coalition would retain 51 seats, while an opposition led by Bennett would hold strong with 59.
When asked if people would vote for a new party led by Bennet in the next Knesset elections, with all other parties unchanged, Bennett’s party received 25 seats, an increase of one seat from last week.
Likud received 24 seats, a decrease of three from last week. The Democrats and Yisrael Beytenu both received 10 seats, and Shas nine.
Yesh Atid, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, and Blue and White all received seven seats. Ra’am received six, Hadash-Ta'al four, and for the first time in a while, the Religious Zionist Party surpassed the electoral threshold with four seats.
With only 2.2% of votes, Balad did not pass the electoral threshold.
Who should Gadi Eisenkot join?
The survey also revealed that roughly one-third of respondents were unsure who Gadi Eizenkot should join ahead of the next elections. While 27% said he should join Naftali Bennett's party, 9% said Yair Lapid's party, 9% said Avigdor Lieberman's, and 21% wanted him to create his own party.
Additionally, the Israeli public appeared to be more optimistic about the prospects of a hostage deal being finalized in the near future. Nearly half of the respondents reported optimism regarding a deal, compared to 37% who were pessimistic, and 16% did not have an opinion.
A further breakdown of the data showed that optimism was higher among coalition voters (61%), while opposition voters were more inclined towards pessimism (48% pessimistic compared to 40% optimistic).
Finally, when asked if Netanyahu or US President Donald Trump is more committed to returning the hostages from Gaza, 51% of respondents answered Netanyahu, 34% answered Trump, and 15% did not know.