The statement issued from Rabbi Dov Lando, the leader of the Lithuanian-haredi public, was highly unusual in the context of Netanyahu’s relations with the haredim.
After the prime minister made clear to haredi representatives that, at this stage, there did not appear to be a coalition majority for the conscription law, Rabbi Lando ruled that efforts should be made to dissolve the Knesset.
He also added a sentence from which it is difficult to walk back: “All sorts of talk about a bloc no longer exists.”
The haredi parties’ dream
That statement reflects a deep crisis of trust between Netanyahu and his haredi partners, the most severe between them in years. After Agudat Yisrael, Degel HaTorah is now also publicly signaling that its trust in Netanyahu has been almost completely eroded. The political alliance that was once considered Netanyahu’s most stable anchor, his exclusive political asset, can no longer be taken for granted.
From the first day of this Knesset term, the haredi parties demanded an arrangement that would secure the status of yeshiva students. Netanyahu promised to address the issue, but the moment of decision was postponed time and again: first because of the judicial overhaul, then because of the war, and later because of the concern that even a softened law would not survive either the Knesset or the High Court of Justice.
Has Netanyahu lost the ability to deliver?
United Torah Judaism and Shas now understand “something new”: Netanyahu no longer has the same ability to deliver as he did in the past. Within Likud, there has long been no guaranteed support for a conscription law in the form the haredim had dreamed of, certainly not after October 7, after hundreds of days of reserve duty, and after a deep shift in the public mood.
Even among traditional right wing voters, including many families of soldiers and reservists, patience has sharply declined for any arrangement that would be seen as a sweeping exemption.
In recent months, some in the haredi parties still tried to believe that they could buy more time: another delay, another compromise formula, another attempt to pass a partial law. Gradually, however, everyone fell in line with the Ger Rebbe's firm position, who demanded elections and an end to making do with promises. From the haredi leadership’s perspective, Netanyahu’s approach has run its course.
Still, the harsh rhetoric about the “death of the bloc” does not necessarily point to an immediate, uncontrolled rupture. The more likely scenario at the moment is a relatively agreed-upon dissolution of the Knesset, coordinated around an election date acceptable to Netanyahu as well. The haredim will shorten his term by several weeks, perhaps by less than two months, and that will be the full extent of their “severe punishment.” Political punishment, but relatively cheap.
When will the elections be held?
The practical meaning of the current drama is already becoming clear in the Knesset corridors. Next week, the opposition is expected to bring the bill to dissolve the Knesset to a vote, after the move was postponed this week. If the bill passes its preliminary reading, it will be sent to the Knesset Committee, where the battle over the date will unfold.
Until just a few days ago, the possibility of elections in September seemed relatively remote. Now, it is considered a far more realistic scenario. The haredim have no interest in dragging the country through many long months of campaigning. They have their own political calculations.
What will Netanyahu do?
For Netanyahu, early elections pose a tangible danger. He cannot be sure he will win, and an election loss could end his rule and greatly narrow his room for maneuver in the face of his criminal trial. As long as he is prime minister, he has political, public, and institutional power. The day he loses the office, the possibility of a future arrangement, a pardon, or retirement on more comfortable terms will become much more difficult.
That is why Netanyahu is expected to try to control the pace of events and prevent an uncontrolled deterioration. Even if the bill to dissolve the Knesset passes, he will still have room to influence the process through Knesset committees, talks with the haredim, and attempts to set the election date that is most convenient for him.
At this stage, the haredim’s ability to determine whether the country goes to elections is already relatively limited. Once the trust between them and Netanyahu has broken down, it is very difficult to return the system to its starting point.
The day after the elections
The political system already understands that the major question is shifting to the day after the elections: whether the haredim will be willing to recommend Netanyahu again and return him to the Prime Minister’s Office.
Another concern has also joined the discussion over early elections, one being heard more and more recently in the political and security establishment: a possible erosion of public trust in the results. Not necessarily fraud in the old sense of the word, but rather influence operations, the spread of false information, foreign interference attempts, and campaigns designed from the outset to damage the legitimacy of the results.
The Shin Bet has a clear role here. The Shin Bet Law tasks it with protecting against terrorism and espionage, as well as safeguarding state institutions and the democratic order from threats both at home and abroad. In the current political situation, protecting the integrity of the elections and public trust in the process is not merely a technical matter for the Central Elections Committee. It is a national security and state responsibility in every sense.
At a time when public discourse is heating up, the coalition is wobbling, and elections already look like a practical possibility, it would have been appropriate for the head of the Shin Bet to state clearly, in his own voice, that protecting the integrity of the elections and public trust in the results will be a central objective of the organization in the coming months.
The crisis over the conscription law now goes far beyond the question of military service. It has become a test of the alliance between Netanyahu and the partners on whom his rule has rested for more than a decade. It is also a test of the entire political system: whether it can reach especially explosive elections without the struggle for power further eroding public trust in the rules of the game.