Iran telegrammed its response to US strikes on its nuclear sites, prior to carrying out the attacks. Throughout Monday Iran prepared to fire retaliatory missiles, however it appears initially it sought to fire only a few missiles, making it clear that while it must respond, the country does not want an escalation.
Initial reports said Iran launched between 6 and 10 missiles at a US base in Qatar and perhaps also targeted the US presence in Iraq.
Reuters reported that explosions were heard over Doha, the capital of Qatar, while sirens were also heard in Bahrain according to Sky News.
While Iran had to respond to US airstrikes carried out in the early hours of Sunday to show that it was not going to surrender, the country does not want a spiraling war that endangers the Iranian regime.
Additionally, Tehran knows that US President Donald Trump has been talking about a deal and peace, meaning that there is a way for Iran to climb down.
So, Iran’s strategy to reply to the US attacks included making it clear that it would respond and communicate via Telegram where that response was likely to occur.
In fact, reports from the New York Times which spoke to Iranian officials, indicate that Iran coordinated the attacks on the American airbase with Qatari officials and gave advanced notice in order to minimize casualties.
On Monday the US State Department issued a warning for Americans to shelter in place in Qatar. Later reports emerged of GPS disruption and also Doha closed its airspace temporarily. At the same time reports emerged that foreign oil companies in Iraq had evacuated some of their staff.
The US has bases throughout the Gulf that Iran could target
Iran closely considered its options. It could attack Al-Dhafra in the UAE, or Al-Udeid in Qatar, in addition to an attack on Al-Asad in Iraq, or US forces at Erbil International Airport in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. It could also target US forces in Syria, a US navy base in Bahrain and numerous ships off the coast of Oman, in the Persian Gulf as well as in the Red Sea and Eastern Mediterranean.
While Gulf countries are on edge, Iran wanted communicate via Telegram its attacks. For this reason reports emerged on Monday evening about how Iran was moving missile launchers into place to attack.
Iran has carried out attacks like this in the past, with prior warning issued via Telegram. In January 2020 Iran attacked Al-Asad base in Iraq after the US killed IRGC Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani in a drone strike in Baghdad. The Islamic Republic has also targeted Syria and Pakistan in the past with ballistic missiles, as well as attacking Israel in April and October in 2024. In both cases, the lead-up was telegrammed by Iran.
This means that Iran, so far, has not sought a surprise attack on countries in response to the US strikes on June 22 on several sites in Iran.
By Monday the region expected the response would come. For that reason Bahrain reportedly warned people to use main roads and the UAE closed its airspace. Nevertheless most maritime traffic through the Straits of Hormuz appeared as normal throughout Monday. This was despite reports that Iran might try to interdict shipping. China would be non-plussed by this and China is a partner of Iran and Iran wants China’s backing.
Iran was careful to make sure that it enacted a contained responded to the US attacks in order to avoid a wider war, save face and ensure it still has a spot at the table to do some kind of deal. This comes amid reports that Israel would also like to see the conflict end.
Israel, the US and Iran appear to all want an end to things, but each has an agenda and desire to achieve something. Iran continues to be pummeled by Israel, and it knows its ballistic missile stocks appear to be much reduced from when the war began.