Iran on Monday targeted the US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar with ballistic missiles. Doha condemned the attack but also said, “We call for the immediate cessation of all military actions and for a serious return to the negotiating table and dialogue.”
It now appears that Qatar played a key role on Monday and perhaps throughout the war between Israel and Iran. In fact, Doha may have benefited from this round of conflict.
The Al Udeid base that Qatar hosts is one of the most important US bases in the Gulf. Washington also has bases in Bahrain, the UAE, and Kuwait, but Doha is unique among the Gulf states for having positive ties with Iran.
It also positions itself as a mediator who is willing to host and work with adversaries of the West while acting as one of its key allies. Qatar did this with the Taliban and Hamas – hosting both groups – and has sought to mediate Gaza ceasefires and hostage deals.
Qatar’s role on the sidelines of the Israel-Iran conflict was not immediately clear after Jerusalem launched airstrikes on June 13. However, over time, it appears Doha was able to find an angle to play a role.
Washington bombed Iran’s nuclear sites in the early hours of Sunday. Iran had to respond to show that it would not simply take the bombing. However, Tehran didn’t want more escalation. In fact, it wanted to use the US bombing to get a deal.
Qatar also wanted to play a role in the deal. It appears now that Iran communicated that it would target the US base in Qatar before the attack. The US State Department issued a “shelter in place” order prior to the attack, and Qatar closed its airspace.
Why was Iran's strike in Qatar a strategic move?
It appeared counterintuitive that Iran would target its closest friend in the Gulf. However, if it had targeted the UAE or Bahrain, this could have led to escalation. With Qatar, Iran knew it had a friend in Doha it could count on to reach out to the US and mediate.
Additionally, an attack on Al Udeid would enable Qatar to work with US Central Command to shoot down the missiles, improving Doha’s image by showcasing why it is even more important and competent as a major, non-NATO ally. Doha benefited from this perception as the attack unfolded and as the White House moved to work for a ceasefire.
THE REPORTS that Iran choreographed or telegraphed these attacks in advance seem to add weight to a larger plan that the Islamic Republic had to climb down from the conflict. Once Doha could step in to mediate as a friend of Tehran and Washington, then US President Donald Trump could get on board.
Qatar would burnish its image as a key ally, while Israel and Iran would appear problematic in the wake of any ceasefire violations. This has proven to be the case with Trump critiquing Israel and calling for it to stop bombing Iran. The US president cursed in a short interaction with media on Tuesday, saying that Iran and Israel didn’t know what the f*** they were doing in the wake of his peace initiative.
Trump thanked the emir of Qatar for seeking peace in the wake of the Iranian attack, which has brought Doha and Washington much closer. Israel’s actions could increase tensions with the administration.
Some Trump supporters believe Israel tried to drag Trump into a war in the region. They critique those whom they claim are “neo-cons” and “never-Trumpers” for what they believe is having a negative role in the first six months of the new administration.
In short, they want Trump to stick to the agenda of “Make America Great Again,” and they don’t think more wars in the Middle East are part of that agenda. They don’t think a conflict between the US and Iran is helpful.
Now, they are applauding the US president for moving back toward peace and de-escalation. Trump tends to see Turkey’s president, the emir of Qatar, and the leader of Saudi Arabia as key friends in the region.
While Trump has praised Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he has also expressed concern in the past that his views are not being listened to in Jerusalem.
US Central Command praised Qatar as well. “Today, US forces, alongside our Qatari partners, successfully defended against an Iranian ballistic missile attack targeting Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base near Doha, Qatar,” CENTCOM said.
“Thanks to the professional, competent, rapid, and coordinated response of US and Qatari forces, the ballistic missile attack was defeated by US and Qatari Patriot batteries, and there were no casualties to American or Qatari personnel. US Central Command appreciates the enduring military-to-military relationship with Qatar, a partnership that has spanned more than 50 years.”
Fox News correspondent Trey Yingst wrote on Monday night that a diplomat had briefed Fox News about the ceasefire talks. “President Trump spoke with Qatar’s emir and informed him [that] the US got Israel to agree to a ceasefire with Iran. The president asked Qatar to help persuade Iran to do the same. Following that, Vice President JD Vance coordinated with Qatar’s Prime Minister on the details.”
Doha emerges as a winner in the Iran-Israel conflict, while Jerusalem may be perceived as breaking the ceasefire or increasing tensions needlessly in the region now. The US has launched unprecedented strikes to weaken Iran’s nuclear program, but Trump will not want to see this important work undone.
Now, Qatar may play an increasing role in US-Iran talks. Oman had mediated the talks in the past, but it remains to be seen what happens next. However, it is clear that Iran’s decision to attack the US base in Qatar handed Doha a major opportunity to help with a ceasefire and possible future talks.