With Hamas's brutality in the Gaza Strip on the increase against other Gazans since the terror group emerged from its tunnels on October 13 and began handing over hostages to Israel, the United States is beginning to give warnings regarding its behavior.
As part of the deal agreed to in Egypt on October 8, 2025, Hamas is supposed to return all the deceased hostages. Hamas is slow-playing this, taking its time as it claims to search for remains. Concurrently, it has increased its brutal attacks on Gazans.
On October 18, the US State Department put out a statement: “The United States has informed the guarantor nations of the Gaza peace agreement of credible reports indicating an imminent ceasefire violation by Hamas against the people of Gaza.” The US says that “This planned attack against Palestinian civilians would constitute a direct and grave violation of the ceasefire agreement and undermine the significant progress achieved through mediation efforts. The guarantors demand that Hamas uphold its obligations under the ceasefire terms. “
It is not entirely clear how the State Department is defining what an “attack” may constitute. Hamas has already been executing people, and videos show them torturing and abusing people. Hamas has also been calling people in for interrogations.
The Hamas abuses have been condemned by Fatah, the Palestinian political party that leads the Palestinian Authority (PA) in Gaza. The US has said that “should Hamas proceed with this attack, measures will be taken to protect the people of Gaza and preserve the integrity of the ceasefire. The United States and the other guarantors remain resolute in our commitment to ensuring the safety of civilians, maintaining calm on the ground, and advancing peace and prosperity for the people of Gaza and the region as a whole.”
The American statement appears aimed at deterring further Hamas atrocities.
This is a warning shot across the bow of the re-emerging Hamas leadership in Gaza. Hamas is supposed to be disarming, but it has instead appeared to be re-militarizing Gaza. This illustrates how the Strip is at a crossroads at the moment. When Hamas emerged from the tunnels on October 13 it was clear that the clock was ticking on whether Hamas would be able to re-constitute its rule.
Some reports have emerged about clans and militias that oppose Hamas.
Several militias are reportedly backed by Israel.
However, in the 50% of Gaza that is controlled by Hamas, any dissidents appear to be have already been murdered and killed. Hamas has begun a reign of terror, making people afraid to oppose its return to power.
The goal of Hamas is to present the international community with a fait accompli so that it doesn’t have to be replaced by an Egyptian-backed Palestinian security force. Israel, meanwhile, opposes reopening the Rafah crossing until the hostage bodies are returned. Israel’s officials also oppose having the PA run Gaza.
Hamas is more disarmed in the West Bank than in Gaza
The PA has generally kept Hamas threats in the West Bank in check, and Hamas has been further disarmed in the West Bank than it has in Gaza. However, Israel’s officials don’t see the PA as the solution, even though Fatah opposes Hamas and doesn’t want it running Gaza. This, along with the continued closure of Rafah, means that there is a power vacuum in Gaza. Hamas is returning to the vacuum
The US has sought to remain focused on Hamas. However, in the first days after October 13, there did not seem to be an attempt to deter Hamas from attacks or find a way to send into Gaza some kind of initial force that would prevent Hamas’s return.
Nevertheless, the wheels are in motion. US Central Command has flown personnel into Israel who are apparently linked to monitoring the October 8 deal.
Reports over the weekend noted that US envoy Steve Witkoff was supposed to return to the Middle East this week, in order to make sure the Trump-backed deal was proceeding. In addition, US Vice President JD Vance is expected in Israel this week.
Each day that goes by without the Gaza deal moving forward means that Hamas continues to cement itself in power. By October 20, this will have been a week in which Hamas has returned to try to run half of Gaza.
Israel is warning Hamas to disarm and wants to see parts of the October 8 deal come to fruition. However, it is not clear how much of Israel’s ruling coalition is actually sold on the deal. For instance, reconstruction and having countries such as Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar playing a major role in Gaza, even sending their own personnel, may not be something Jerusalem wants to see.
Instead, the continued brutality of Hamas and the slow return of hostages may work in Hamas’s favor, as it slowly consolidates power behind the scenes.
Hamas does not seem to be taking the US statement seriously. It is also not taking Fatah's condemnations seriously. Hamas continues to behave in the same arrogant way it has for years.