A real Hamas disarmament plan is here.
How to disarm Hamas has been the central question that has dominated Israel’s security scene and the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict since October 7, 2023, and possibly for decades to come.
On Thursday, US President Donald Trump and his top aide on many of these issues, Jared Kushner, rolled out specific plans on a variety of issues relating to Gaza’s “the Day After.”
Here are the positives upfront.
Hamas gives away all of its heavy weapons, like rockets, rocket-propelled grenades, and weaponized drones, which means it should no longer have the capacity to threaten Israel within the Green Line on a dime.
The Gaza terrorists will also need to give up all or large portions of their Gaza tunnel network, which could save the IDF huge amounts of time and resources, and maybe also reveal some spots that the military might have missed on its own.
Would NCAG weaken Hamas?
Some kind of new Palestinian National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) police force would be formed that would at least partially displace Hamas’s ability to dominate the streets of the Strip at all times.
And maybe, maybe, this whole process might weaken Hamas enough that at some point, it will get overpowered by the NCAG and other (hopefully) more moderate Palestinian and Arab forces.
But there are some gaping potential holes and questions that could bring the whole plan down in flames if not properly addressed.
A key aspect of the plan is that Hamas terrorists (suddenly valid fighters?) can keep their personal weapons, whether machine guns or hand guns.
All they need to do is to register their weapons.
Who will ensure that all weapons are registered? For example, will the IDF and the Shin Bet (Israel Security Service) be allowed to do surveillance in Gaza, like they do in Lebanon to catch when Hezbollah and the Lebanese army lie and manipulate the disarmament process?
Another key aspect is that all Hamas members can be given amnesty, safe passage out of Gaza, or even integration into the new NCAG police.
Will all Hamas officers over a company commander rank and fighters who have actually been involved in attacks on Israelis get blacklisted from the new NCAG police, so that “integration” will be limited to newer Hamas recruits who have not committed acts of terror?
Or will Hamas members with blood on their hands get a second chance like Israel gave PLO terrorists during the Oslo era?
Does the US, Israel, or some third party decide if there is a dispute about whether a Hamas member can be trusted to become part of the NCAG?
When, inevitably, one or more members of the committee are revealed as being terrorists or spies, who will handle the issue?
If these details are handled well, the above recipe has a chance, even if it is a long shot, to eventually lead to further reducing the threat of Hamas to Israel in a truly serious and lasting way.
But if these details are handled poorly, even if the structure is built and it lasts for months or even years, the whole thing could collapse in days like the fall of America’s propped-up Afghanistan government and military to the Taliban – practically overnight once the writing was on the wall.
And the truth is that it is being optimistic to think that analyzing the deal will get even that far.
Based on the Middle East’s history and what has happened in other similar regions, like Afghanistan, whoever has the most guns and fighters willing to die will eventually outlast everyone else, and it is hard to see how this will not be Hamas unless the Palestinian people themselves undergo some new process of change to be able to resist them.
In an even worse-case scenario, 20% of what is being proposed will happen, but the rest will get stuck at some intermediate point when disputes break out in the field about unexpected or purposely provoked incidents.
There will also be all kinds of questions about when the IDF will need to make partial withdrawals in relation to when Hamas makes partial disarmament moves.
But this proposing of the first real Hamas disarmament plan means that the great game has begun for Israel, Hamas, the US, Qatar, Turkey, and others to try to reframe the future of the conflict and the region.