Sunni politician Saad Hariri is seeking a return to political leadership in Lebanon. Over the weekend, he said his political party, known as the Future Movement, will run in the next parliamentary elections.
The elections are expected to take place in May. The Future Movement had suspended its political activities in 2022, Saudi Arabia-based newspaper Arab News reported.
Hariri is angling to return to politics as he marks the 21st anniversary of the assassination of his father, former prime minister Rafik Hariri. On Saturday, he gave a speech in Beirut at Martyrs’ Square in front of his father’s tomb.
Rafik Hariri was murdered in a bombing that was likely carried out by Hezbollah. It’s possible that the Assad regime was also involved.
The bombing led to Syria’s regime withdrawing from Lebanon. It also led to protests against Hezbollah. Hezbollah responded by attacking Israel in 2006, apparently to cause a war and keep itself relevant.
Today, Hezbollah is once again under fire from Israel. It attacked Israel on October 8, 2023, the day after the October 7 massacre.
Lebanon has changed over the past decades. Saad Hariri took over the reins of Sunni politics in Lebanon after his father’s death.
He struggled to become a leader, however, in part because he was young. When he got older, he continued to struggle.
At one point, Hariri flew to Saudi Arabia for consultations with the Saudis. Basically, he appeared to be held in Saudi Arabia.
Hariri sidelined as new Lebanese leaders aim to disarm Hezbollah
His political allies among the Christians, Sunnis, and others were never able to curtail Hezbollah. Now, having been sidelined in Lebanon, he has seen a political leadership emerge that claims it will disarm Hezbollah.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam are supposed to be leading the way.
“After 21 years, the supporters of Hariri’s approach are still many,” Hariri said in his speech.
“Moderation is not hesitation… and patience is not weakness,” Arab News quoted him as saying. “Rafik Hariri’s project is not a dream that will fade. He was the model of a statesman who believed, until martyrdom, that ‘no one is greater than their country.’ The proof is his enduring place in the minds, hearts, and consciences of the Lebanese people.”
Now, “the Lebanese are weary, and after years of wars, divisions, alignments, and armed bastions, they deserve a normal country with one constitution, one army, and one legitimate authority over weapons – because Lebanon is one and will remain one,” Hariri said. “Notions of division have collapsed in the face of reality, history, and geography, and the illusions of annexation and hegemony have fallen with those who pursued them, who ultimately fled.”
He talked about a stable Middle East and working on positive ties with the new government in Syria. This makes sense, because Hariri is an ally of Saudi Arabia, and so is the Ahmed al-Sharaa government in Damascus.
Hariri has also praised the Taif Agreement that ended the civil war in Lebanon, which had been raging since the 1960s. The Saudis brokered it in Taif, Saudi Arabia, in 1989.
HIS SPEECH has attracted much interest in Lebanon and the region. It was covered by Beirut-based newspaper Al Akhbar, which is pro-Iranian.
State-run broadcaster TRT (Turkish Radio and Television Corporation) interviewed Future Movement Secretary-General Ahmad Hariri to discuss what comes next.
“Saad Hariri, the former prime minister, had announced in January 2022 that he was suspending his political activity and would not run in the parliamentary elections or present candidates on behalf of the Future Movement, which is considered the most prominent Sunni political component in the country,” TRT reported.
Ahmad Hariri, a cousin of Saad Hariri, said the Future Movement “had been in limbo since 2022 by a decision of its former leader, adding that recent regional developments were a turning point,” the report said. “He pointed to what he described as a ‘major shift’ in the regional landscape, most notably the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, as well as the growing clarity regarding the need to preserve Syria’s unity and the success of Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s vision.”
The Hariris believe there is a void in Lebanon caused by the absence of the Future Movement and a powerful historic Sunni bloc in parliament.
“Regarding the significance of this year’s February 14th anniversary, [Ahmad Hariri] explained that the domestic situation is exceptional, particularly as it precedes the parliamentary elections scheduled for next May,” TRT reported. “He confirmed that the authorities have called on voters to participate in the elections, with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun insisting that the elections be held on time without postponement.”
“Hariri considered the rapprochement between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt a positive development that serves the region, noting that previous disagreements between these countries represented a collective weakness,” the report said. “He said that the steps taken by Ankara in this direction contributed to strengthening the cohesion of the regional position.”
“The coordination between [Turkish] President [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi constitutes a regional framework capable of confronting challenges, including attempts by the Israeli occupation to exploit any vacuum or division in the region,” Hariri said.
Some see this as a new Sunni alliance emerging in the Middle East. This would aid the Sunnis in Lebanon. Lebanon-Syria ties will be important in this context.
Both Turkey and Saudi Arabia would like to see the Hariris reach out to Damascus. This could flip the situation from one in which Assad backed Hezbollah to Sharaa backing the Sunnis in Lebanon.
This could be a game-changer. It could also lead to weakening Hezbollah.
Israel has wanted Hezbollah weakened, but it is skeptical of Sharaa, and some voices in Jerusalem are wary of a Sunni alliance emerging.
Clearly, the Iranians are watching these developments along with Hezbollah. They also don’t want to see a strong Hariri emerge in Lebanon.
Hezbollah killed Hariri’s father, and it’s unlikely Iran and Assad didn’t know about it. As such, there is much at stake in Beirut.