Qatar’s decision to declare the security and military attache in Iran's embassy as "persona non grata" on Wednesday signals a “major break” from Doha’s previously tempered response to the regime’s strikes, regional analysts told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday.
The military and security personnel were asked to leave within 24 hours of the notice after Iran launched repeated attacks against the country, the latest of which targeted Qatar's Rass Laffan industrial city. QatarEnergy reported "extensive damage" after the hit, which processes about a fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas.
Dr. Najah Al-Otaibi, a Saudi researcher and analyst specializing in international relations and the Gulf region, told The Post that Iran’s attacks constitute “a betrayal of the diplomatic detente” established in 2023.
“The Gulf Cooperative Council, especially Riyadh, feels it has invested significant capital into rapprochement, only for Iran to respond with ballistic missiles!” she said, adding that Doha’s decision is “more than symbolic” but a “major break” from what has been seen during the conflict so far.
Doha forced to align with Riyadh, Washington
Doha has acted as a mediator between the GCC and Tehran for years, but the continuous attacks on Qatar and its gas facilities “have shattered this role, forcing Doha to align firmly with Riyadh and Washington,” Otaibi explained.
Otaibi said that Tehran’s latest escalation would likely lead Gulf states to shift “toward active deterrence,” though she noted Saudi Arabia “still signals a preference for diplomacy, [but] its officials explicitly stated it will not rule out military action if necessary.”
The reality and economic fallout of a full-scale war is undesirable to the GCC, she shared, explaining the lack of willingness to respond to Iran with military force, “but accepting these attacks is no longer possible.”
Tehran claimed the attack on Rass Laffan industrial city was a response to Israel’s strikes on Iran's major gas field, including the South Pars Gas Field shared by Qatar and Iran, which US President Donald Trump denied advanced knowledge of.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump had supported Israel's plan to attack South Pars, and Israeli media reported widely on Wednesday that it had been carried out with Trump's consent and in coordination with Washington.
Asked about these reports, and what it would mean for relations with the US if Trump did approve the Israeli strike, Otaibi said the reports she’d seen suggested that “he may have approved it to pressure Tehran.”
“This is making the Gulf leaders anxious about uncertainty and could lead the Gulf states to pursue independent security decisions away from Washington," she warned.
Despite noting that decisions may be made without consulting the US, Otaibi said she believed Iran’s actions were pushing “previously neutral neighbors into a unified front with the US and Israel” and “further isolating Tehran.”