If the Biden administration returns to the 2015 deal but doesn’t lift the other sanctions, it is just a “symbolic” return, Tehran believes.
By SETH J. FRANTZMANIranians burn a U.S. flag during a protest against President Donald Trump's decision to walk out of a 2015 nuclear deal, in Tehran, Iran, May 11, 2018. (photo credit: REUTERS)
Iran has been having an internal debate about the best way to approach US President-elect Joe Biden.On the one hand, the regime does want the US to end sanctions. This could mean a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the 2015 Iran deal.However, Tehran also thinks it is in a stronger position today and that there is little reason for it to abide by the deal anyway because it thinks it has largely defeated the US.Iran’s media on Sunday included an article about the Iran deal. According to the article by the semi-official Fars News Agency, Iran has been under at least 60 different sanctions put in place by President Donald Trump’s administration. The Islamic Republic says many of these sanctions are overlapping, noting that one went after the central bank for is links to the nuclear program and for links to “supporting terrorism.”These “re-sanctioning” of institutions has made it difficult for Iran. The oil sector has also been targeted.This means that if the Biden administration returns to the 2015 deal but does not lift the other sanctions, it is just a “symbolic” return, Iran says. “We cannot even sell oil,” the article notes.The article references key Biden advisers, such as Antony Blinken.Iran does not believe all the sanctions will be lifted quickly. That means the US will face obstacles returning to the period of 2015 and the UN resolution that enshrines the Iran deal.“Given the issue of the other sanctions, it is almost impossible for Biden to return to the Iran deal – and we should not rely on this,” the article said.In short, Iran does not trust the US and does not think everything done in the last several years can be reversed easily. This means Iran is planning for a future in 2021 where it will still be under a siege of sanctions.Some in Iran suggested moving closer to China, while others are hoping arms sales can bolster the country. Either way, what is clear is that Iran is treading carefully and considering the implications of another year of privation.
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