The US and Israeli war on Iran could change the world order. It is an important war, and its overall implications may go far beyond the Middle East.
It could be a curtain-raiser for what happens in the next quarter-century, the way the 1991 Gulf War with Iraq was also a curtain-raiser for what then-US president George H.W. Bush called a “new world order.” Bush promised a world order of peace and democracy and a rules-based world order where countries wouldn’t invade one another.
He wanted a world based on consensus after the Cold War. It was also a world where the US was the global hegemon.
Bush wanted to use American power to enforce this new world order. War would not be entered into without consultation and consensus. He wanted to use diplomacy and be judicious.
His administration was packed with many who had close knowledge of the Vietnam War. Colin Powell and Norman Schwartzkopf had served in Vietnam. They wanted a new kind of American military power. In their conception, the US would only go to war with clear objectives.
Many articles in the last week of the war with Iran have analyzed the war and its implications. Some think this war is actually about China. Will Beijing see the war in Iran and feel worried about American power? Will it see a US submarine sinking an Iranian ship that had no real chance as a sign of power or of Washington throwing its weight around? What will it conclude?
Many things have changed in the last quarter-century. The US has entered a war of choice with Iran.
Recent reports appear to show that the US was told that Iran was close to a nuclear weapon and that its missiles posed an immediate threat. A report at The Wall Street Journal describes how a US senator shuttled back and forth to Israel to “sell” the war to the Trump administration. Reports also make it seem that Tehran was portrayed as both similar to the Nazi regime but also weak.
The objectives for the war are unclear; there have been suggestions of regime change. However, if the war is about nuclear weapons, so far, none of the strikes appear to have targeted the nuclear program. Reports say that Iran has lost around two-thirds of its rocket launchers and has only around 120 left. However, reports in the June 2025 war said the same thing. Iran can rebuild rocket launchers.
United States 'unable' to create coalition of forces
A new article in Al-Ain Media in the UAE describes the conflict as potentially reshaping the world's geopolitical map.
It quotes Héloïse Fayet, an expert in France, as explaining “that the current conflict reveals a world that is already multipolar, where the United States is no longer able to muster a broad global coalition as it did in previous wars.”
French researcher Dominique Moïsi, “an adviser at the Montaigne Institute for Strategic Studies, told Al-Ain News that the war in Iran reveals a deeper shift in international relations – namely, the decline in the West’s ability to impose its vision of the world order.”
In addition, the report discusses how China is presenting itself as a stable power that now cares about the world order. In essence, it is now Beijing that is trying to position itself as upholding Bush’s rules-based order.
“This stance reflects China’s attempt to present itself as an international power that defends stability and diplomatic solutions in the face of what it describes as US military interventionist policies,” the article says.
The report adds that “French political experts considered that the war that broke out on February 28 could be the beginning of a new phase that will witness a reshaping of international balances.”
It says, “Experts believe that global diplomatic interactions with this conflict reveal a more complex and fragmented world map than in previous years, where international alignment no longer follows clear traditional lines between East and West but is distributed according to multiple security, economic, and geopolitical calculations.”
The article further says that “developments related to the war in Iran indicate that the world is facing a profound geopolitical shift. The international landscape no longer reflects a traditional East-West divide but rather reveals a complex web of shifting interests and alliances.”
In addition, the “Iranian-American-Israeli war may be an indication of the emergence of a new global division, not only based on traditional alliances but also on regional interests and strategic calculations that differ from one country to another, which is clearly evident in the varying international reactions to the military operations that targeted Iran.”
European countries don’t know what to make of the war. Reports indicate a French aircraft carrier is en route to the region and suggest the UK may send two of its carriers.
“European reactions revealed a deep division on the continent regarding the war. Some countries, such as Spain, recalled the experience of the 2003 Iraq War, warning that military interventions could lead to increased terrorism, migration crises, and economic instability,” Al-Ain noted.
“Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez stressed that his country’s position is based on rejecting violations of international law and rejecting the resolution of conflicts by military force, noting that the war in Iraq was an example of interventions that led to a more dangerous and unstable world.”