As Iran continues its attacks on the Gulf countries, particularly the UAE, there could be a narrative shift about what should happen next. This means that countries that were publicly very cautious about the outbreak of war and appeared to prefer de-escalation may now want to see Iran defeated in a long-term campaign.
They may still be wary of escalation, and this includes attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure. While they don’t appear ready to commit their own armed forces, some are more open to a longer campaign to make sure that Iran can’t threaten the region again.
This double-edged sword of discussion in the Gulf is complex for a region that has prized regional stability over conflict. The Gulf countries don’t benefit from conflict. With large expat populations and a myriad of foreign workers, they thrive based on trade and oil tankers able to transit the Strait of Hormuz.
However, Iran has shown that it is not a responsible steward of the Strait. It has basically closed the Strait to traffic, which is causing a disruption in energy markets.
In addition, Iran has launched thousands of drones and missiles at countries such as the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. Iran’s attacks have not been equal for each country, and have targeted the UAE the most. It has also targeted different sites in different places, including US forces and energy sites.
Iran has historically attacked oil tankers
Iran has long been an aggressive country in the region. It has backed militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen, both of whom are a threat to the security of the Gulf countries. Iran has also attacked oil tankers in the past, particularly back in 2019. Thus, Iran’s aggressiveness has always been an issue that these countries are wary of. Back in 2019, Iran attacked Saudi Arabia using drones and cruise missiles, targeting the Abqaiq energy facility.
In the past, the Gulf countries have not wanted to respond. However, Saudi Arabia did lead an intervention in Yemen in 2015, along with the UAE. Later, Riyadh also led the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt to cut ties with Qatar from 2017-2019.
These days, things are more unified in the Gulf. The Iranian attacks have likely unified the countries further. The Gulf countries have had slightly different views of Iran over the years.
Qatar, Oman, and Kuwait have attempted to have amicable ties. Saudi Arabia was very vocal in its opposition to Iran from 2012-2022, but a China and Iraq-backed deal helped Iran and Saudi Arabia appear to settle some of their differences. Iran also did outreach to Egypt.
Iran has been very vocal in its anger over the Abraham Accords, which Bahrain and the UAE joined in 2020. As such, it appears clear that Iran’s disproportionate targeting of the UAE is partly due to the UAE’s ties to Israel.
Iran’s attacks may backfire. Initially, many Gulf states appeared to oppose the conflict. They even hinted they would like to help bring it to an end. Now, things may have gone too far. Iran’s aggressive actions show that the regime is not reliable or pragmatic as a “partner” in the Gulf.
Iran has often tried to portray itself as a pragmatic regime and pretends to adhere to international law. Even though the regime’s many crimes make this seem ridiculous, it is one of the facades that allowed many countries to try to “to get along” with Iran. Now, the facade is destroyed.
How can other countries trust Iran again after what it has done? It didn’t merely lob a few symbolic missiles at US bases in the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait. It has carried out thousands of attacks.
Bachar el-Halabi, an expert in the region, wrote on X/Twitter: “Senior Gulf officials have told me there is absolutely no way they would accept an outcome where Iran controls passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a global choke point governed by international maritime law that guarantees transit for all.”
Hasan T. Alhasan, a senior fellow for Middle East Policy at IISS, also commented on a headline at Al-Jazeera, which noted, “UAE could join an international effort led by the US to secure the Strait of Hormuz, says adviser Anwar Gargash.”
Commenting on the headline on X, Alhasan noted, “This is highly significant, but not entirely surprising. As I wrote in my latest piece, the Gulf states have a vital economic interest in resuming maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and possess considerable military capacity to help do so.”
At The Wall Street Journal, Chief Foreign-Affairs Correspondent Yaroslav Trofimov notes that the “UAE and other Gulf states want the Iranian regime neutered before the war ends — so that they can never be battered with missiles and drones again.”
Ghanem Nuseibeh, a London-based consultant and analyst, also writing on X, said, “The optimal time for the Iran war to stop with least damage has passed. If it stops now, the regime will likely regroup for another round. If it doesn’t stop, then it will be many months of attrition, that will be not only costly, but unaffordable to the region. Unless a miracle happens, I cannot see a near-term positive outcome.”