The Strait of Hormuz continues to confound the US as it seeks to secure a deal with Iran.
Pakistan is outwardly hopeful that a deal can be reached. But being that the US and Iranian delegations don’t appear to be ready to restart negotiations indicates that Islamabad is facing a tough road ahead.
It increasingly looks like the US and Israeli decision to strike Iran on February 28 has opened a Pandora’s box in the Strait of Hormuz.
The notion of a Pandora’s box is taken from a Greek myth about a kind of jar or urn that when opened, all sorts of maladies and evil came out of it. The concept is that one thing can produce a number of unforeseen and negative consequences.
The attack on Iran led Iran to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, which has now become the main issue bedeviling policy-makers, the region, and the world.
The US had known for many years that in a crisis Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz, according to reports in March. In fact, Tehran had threatened to do this over the years and hinted at what it might do.
Iran had already mined several ships in 2019, shot down a US drone, and boarded several ships. Tehran demonstrated that it could do what it wanted in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
The big question now is whether the continued ceasefire between the US and Iran will hold and whether it will affect the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. That ceasefire is primarily aimed at ending the IDF’s war on Hezbollah.
While there have been talks in Washington between Israel and Lebanon, it remains unclear whether there is a good way forward to disarm Hezbollah. As such, the conflict in Lebanon is likely to continue, at least at a low level, with Israel occupying a new security zone on the border.
For Hormuz watchers, it is unclear what comes next. Iran had blocked the waterway but appeared ready to open it earlier in April. When the US signaled it would not end its blockade of the Iranian blockade, things went back to the way they were, with Iran preventing ships from transiting Hormuz.
“Iran fired on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz and seized two of them Wednesday, intensifying its assault on shipping in the key waterway,” Saudi Arabia-based newspaper Arab News reported Wednesday. “The attacks came a day after US President Donald Trump extended a ceasefire while maintaining an American blockade of Iranian ports.”
Iran appears to be increasing its pressure on the US and on the region.
“A complete ceasefire only has meaning if it is not violated through a naval blockade,” Arab News quoted Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as saying. He appears to be one of the key Iranian negotiators.
THE TRUMP administration, however, senses that there is a bit of chaos in Tehran as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other players vie for control.
“Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is not possible amid a blatant violation of the ceasefire,” Ghalibaf said.
“Iranian media said the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard was bringing the two ships to Iran, marking a further escalation, though the White House said the seizures didn’t violate ceasefire terms,” Arab News reported.
“The conflict has already sent gas prices skyrocketing far beyond the region and raised the cost of food and a wide array of other products,” the report said. “The price of Brent crude oil, the international standard, nosed over $100 per barrel, marking a 35% increase from prewar levels, but stock markets still appear to be shrugging it off.”
EU worried about lasting consequences
The European Union is worried about lasting consequences. The US was also holding a meeting in Cyprus on Thursday and Friday.
“Iranian media said the MSC Francesca and the Epaminondas were being escorted to Iran,” Arab News reported. “The US had earlier seized two Iranian vessels as the ceasefire talks were due to take place in Pakistan. Technomar, the management company behind the Liberian-registered Epaminondas, said it was ‘approached and fired upon by a manned gunboat’ off the coast of Oman. It said the ship’s bridge was damaged.”
The US also been boarding Iranian ships and had intercepted three Iranian oil tankers, Reuters reported.
The US military stopped and boarded the M/T Tifani, a tanker carrying Iranian oil, The New York Times reported.
This means that there appears to be a kind of tit for tat in which Iran is also attacking ships as the US boards ships linked to Iran. It does not appear tensions are being calmed. It does appear, however, that the US may be reluctant to go back to bombing Iran. Nevertheless, it wants to drive up the pressure on Tehran.
“A second cargo ship came under fire hours later, with no report of damage, though it was then stopped in the water,” Arab News reported. “No injuries to the crews of either vessel were reported. Panama condemned what it called the ‘illegal seizure’ of the Panama-flagged MSC Francesca and said it represented a serious attack on maritime security.”
A third ship, the Euphoria, was also attacked, the report said.
This big question going into the weekend is whether the US might consider walking away from the ceasefire and resuming strikes, or whether it could ratchet up pressure in other ways.
The White House continues to appear like it would like to secure a deal, but the Hormuz issue has expanded the American goals. Iran wants Hormuz, Lebanon, and other issues to be included in any deal.
The US was initially focused on Iran’s enriched uranium and its ballistic-missile program. Those are two issues that matter greatly to Israel.
The Hormuz closure, however, has now become the proverbial Pandora’s box that has been opened, and many things have now come out of this crisis that were not initially expected or were part of previous discussions about a deal. This enables a lot of leverage for Iran.