Iran has entered an aggressive phase of friction-testing and learning boundaries with Israel, the US, and countries in the region, geopolitics and technology expert Yonatan Adiri warned during a 103FM interview on Monday.
According to Adiri, the recent confrontations with Iran are shaping a new reality in the Middle East and forcing Israel to reexamine the limits of the campaign.
"You can think of today's Iran like Israel on October 8," Adiri explained. "[Iran] understands that it needs to rub against others, go out and rediscover the boundaries again, vis-a-vis its neighbors, vis-a-vis Israel, and of course also vis-a-vis the Americans."
According to him, Tehran is currently in the midst of an aggressive learning competition with regional states and is willing to raise the level of friction to test the limits of power and the response to it.
"Iran is prepared for very significant friction. The Iranian attack on the nuclear reactor in the United Arab Emirates is a dramatic event with enormous economic implications," he said.
Broader risks in the Middle East
Adiri added that the significance of the events is not limited to the military or diplomatic arena, but also relates to broader risks in the region. "The International Atomic Energy Agency warned about the danger of an explosive event with nuclear damage in the region. The Iranians are playing this game also with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Kuwait. In a few months, Iran will not be the same country we knew."
He then addressed the effect of the tensions on global markets, arguing that the world economy has learned to absorb the reality that has emerged. "Iran is in a situation where there is a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz," he said.
"Oil prices have remained more or less at the level to which the global economy has adjusted. As long as there is no agreement, Iran does not receive sanctions relief or the $24 billion that became a prerequisite. It is convenient for the global economy to live with this."
Adiri also said that the US is preparing in advance and working to secure control of the Strait of Malacca, which lies between Singapore and Indonesia, to prevent further deterioration.
Adiri addressed how Israel should act in the new campaign
According to Adiri, Israel should continue testing the boundaries of action, including with Washington.
"It was right that [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu showed that Israel is prepared to rub against the Americans as well in order to keep learning the limits of the campaign. It would have been right to strike from the outset with a significant opening blow and not work in increments, because the windows of legitimacy are smaller than before," he said.
Adiri warned that Israel cannot afford to fear friction when facing an adversary willing to take risks. "We have an adversary who understands that he is in a learning competition with the best and is willing to take aggressive risks. Israel must not be afraid of this friction and must not recoil now."