US sale of F-35 jets to UAE will go ahead. What can Israel get in return?

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can deny as much as he likes, but it seems like it's a done deal: the advanced F-35 stealth fighter jet will likely be in the hands of pilots from the United Arab Emirates in coming years. In a press conference in Jerusalem on Monday, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Washington will continue to supply Abu Dhabi with technical and military assistance, like they have over the past two decades. “We will continue to make sure we are delivering them with the equipment that they need to secure and defend their own people from this same threat,” he said, referring to Iran. He nevertheless stressed that “the United States has a legal requirement with respect to qualitative military edge, and we will continue to honor that.” Though Washington has been selling Abu Dhabi millions in military deals, they have been bound to preserve Israel's qualitative military edge (QME) in the Middle East before selling any advanced weaponry to regional states. US President Donald Trump's administration has said the normalization agreement between the UAE and Israel could allow the Gulf state to clinch unspecified new US arms sales, and the UAE, which is among the world's biggest defense spenders, is currently in the process of building up its armed forces. But it might not only be the UAE that ends up requesting Washington sell them the advanced jet. So might the other Arab countries that have signed peace accords with Israel: Jordan and Egypt, the latter of which might already face American sanctions for its recent $2.5 billion purchase of 4.5 generation SU-35 fighter jets from Russia, since Washington won't sell them the F-35s. And what about Saudi Arabia? Will the possibility of getting such jets be that last push the kingdom needs to sign a similar normalization deal with the Jewish state? Since Pompeo has said Washington will continue to make sure Israel retains its QME, what can or will Israel demand in return for the UAE receiving F-35s. Will it be the F-35B short takeoff/vertical landing (STOVL)? Israel has expressed interest in the past in acquiring the F-35B, which has the capabilities for vertical takeoff and landings, an option that can allow the jet to land on much shorter runways if the IAF's bases are attacked by Iranian jets or missiles from Hezbollah. But, a senior Israel Air Force officer who was personally involved in the decision to purchase the F-35s told The Jerusalem Post recently that the disadvantages of the plane are greater than the advantages. “It can extend the range of the air force and gives more opportunities that would enlarge the operational envelope of the IAF, but it carries fewer weapons,” he said. So what about the V-22 Osprey? The IAF is also once again looking at procuring Boeing's V-22 Osprey despite budgetary issues, as it believes there is an operational need for between 12-14 aircraft that can take off and land like helicopters but fly like fixed-wing planes. The multi-role combat aircraft uses tiltrotor technology, combining the vertical performance of helicopters (such as takeoff and landings) with the speed, altitude and range of fixed-wing planes, making them the ideal aircraft for sensitive missions since they don't need runways. But the UAE also wants the V-22, so we can rule out that purchase to retain Israel's QME. Maybe the F-22 Raptor? The F-22 is an advanced tactical fighter aircraft developed for the US Air Force and is considered the first 5th-generation fighter after it entered service with the USAF in 2005. Using low observable technologies and modern avionics, the F-22 has been designed to rapidly project air dominance with stealth and range. The supersonic jet can be armed with an M61A2 cannon, six AIM-120 AMRAAMs, two AIM-9 Sidewinders, two 1,000-pound GBU-32 Joint Direct Attack Munitions and two AIM-120s. Flown only by the USAF, if sold to Jerusalem the F-22 can without a doubt maintain Israel's QME in the Middle East. But maybe Israel doesn't need aircraft to keep it's QME, what about advanced heavy weaponry like the GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator or the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB)? The MOAB, nicknamed the Mother of All Bombs, is considered the largest non-nuclear bomb in the USAF's inventory and was used only once against Islamic State terrorists, dropped on a deep tunnel complex in eastern Nangarhar Province in Afghanistan. Both bunker busters are in use only by the US and would provide Israel with the ability to effectively destroy Iranian infrastructure deep underground. Selling the F-35 to the UAE would reduce Israel's regional superiority – especially if other Arab countries follow suit. But there are several options available and more will likely come up that Washington can sell Israel to maintain it's QME. It's not the end of Israel's reign of power in Middle Eastern skies.

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US sale of F-35 jets to UAE will go ahead. What can Israel get in return?

Washington is bound to protect Israel's QME. So what might be on Jerusalem's weaponry wishlist?

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