United States President Joe Biden’s senior advisers, Jake Sullivan and Brett McGurk, recently completed an official visit to Israel, aimed at briefing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about their talks with the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (MBS). Following the visit, they made public the US administration’s sentiments that creating a bridge between Saudi Arabia and Israel was important for the national security of the US, no less. One can deduce from that, that the current administration places this issue relatively high on its priority list.
While Israel now has its most right-wing coalition ever and given that the Biden administration is not known for its fondness of the current government’s policies, the aforementioned development has succeeded in raising more than one eyebrow vis-à-vis how serious or successful this effort may truly be.
Yet, while Saudi Arabia itself has recently signed a rapprochement agreement with its arch-enemy, Iran, seemingly putting an end to the dreams of many to broaden the Abraham Accords, it is possible that it is Riyadh that is quietly maneuvering international role players to play a part in a brilliant and unexpected game.
Saudi Arabia's attempt to play in a brilliant and unexpected game
The objective of this game is to bring about an alternative reality that shall prove conducive to Saudi goals: regional stability in the Arab Gulf region; tremendous economic development and reaching regional military superiority in order to safeguard its interests in the future.
It seems as if the Biden administration is interested in leaving an undeniable mark regarding its superiority and standing in the international arena. The Saudi-Iranian deal, brokered by China, certainly did not go unnoticed and raised the American determination to return the international standing that the US lost on a number of occasions in recent years: with the withdrawal of its military from Afghanistan, leaving many Afghanis who had collaborated with the US to the whims of a murderous Taliban; when the US was perceived as abandoning its friends, namely the Kurds, in Syria and Turkey, and when the game-changing and unprecedented Abraham Accords were signed and doubtlessly credited to former president Donald Trump.
Given the aforementioned occurrences, Saudi Arabia understood that it cannot wholly rely on American support, particularly given the criticism of its leadership following the killing of Saudi journalist Khashoggi, and surprised the world by allowing China to broker the Iranian-Saudi deal. This was done with the perfect understanding that such a step would motivate the US to attempt to overstep this achievement with a successful maneuver of its own.
Meanwhile, the agreement with Iran serves Saudi Arabia in that it bought stability and quiet from Yemen and the Houthis, which have been funded, trained and armed by Tehran against Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries. This quiet allows Riyadh to focus on executing its 2030 vision concocted by MBS, which aims to empower Saudi Arabia economically in a manner that outplays its dependency on oil alone, instead of drowning in the mud of aimless, regional conflicts.
ALMOST SIMULTANEOUSLY and seemingly coincidently (or not) the Saudis leaked to The New York Times a long and quite unrealistic list of demands in return for normalizing relations with Israel. Its empathy for the Palestinian cause did not seem to particularly perturb the Saudi regime, if one is to judge by that list of demands, as opposed to its wish to acquire clear military superiority in the region.
As Saudi Arabia is not yet another country in the Islamic Sunni World but the keeper of the two holiest sites in Islam, Mecca and Medina, it is obvious that any agreement reached between Riyadh and Jerusalem will have to include some sort of solution for the Palestinian issue, something that literally appears light years away from the current reality in both the Palestinian and the Israeli arenas. So, how, despite all that, may this grand plan be reached?
The prime minister of Israel, currently up to his neck in a political quagmire, surrounded by coalition partners threatening to completely eliminate the remnants of his legacy and political-economic achievements throughout the years, may view the extended hand of the Biden administration vis-à-vis a Saudi-Israeli normalization deal as a perfect opportunity.
He does not make a secret of his long-term goal to foster relations with the leader of the Sunni Muslim world and even mentioned it in his speech following the Likud’s victory in the last round of elections. When the moment is ripe, he will be able to explain his complete and final exit from politics while leaving behind an impressive and game-changing legacy in the form of far-reaching regional peace.
Such an achievement – far away as it may currently seem – may well be worth, in his perception, the concessions he would have to make with regard to the Palestinian issue. It is perhaps wise to also recall that Mahmoud Abbas, who currently serves as the president of a weakened and barely functional Palestinian Authority in Judea and Samaria, is not eternal.
Despite his substantial age, he did not create a stable and functional alternative to his leadership, whether it be over the Palestinians under his rule and the Hamas, who understand this reality all too well.
Hamas is patiently awaiting the moment when Abbas leaves the arena, allowing them to collect the remnants of the Fatah rule and take full control over the West Bank, creating a far more complex reality for Israel’s security than the current Hamas regime in the Gaza Strip.
A creative solution to this nightmarish scenario in the form of the establishment of some form of Palestinian entity, independent and separate from Israel, would most probably earn the support of most, if not all of the highest security echelon in Israel.
Thus it may seem, that despite the seemingly unrealistic quest for a broadening of the Abraham Accords at this point in time, it may be just the moment for unexpected developments.
The writer, a former MK, was the founder and co-chair of the first Abraham Accords Caucus in the Knesset. She is currently the chairperson of the Women’s Impact Forum of the World Jewish Congress.