The Israeli public has gotten a disturbing and bloody glimpse of Iran’s plans for Judea and Samaria in recent weeks. As Fatah and Mahmoud Abbas’s autocratic kleptocracy continues to disintegrate, Iran and its allies, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, are predictably increasing their power and influence in Judea and Samaria.
Iran’s designs are for the area to turn into yet another forward operating base against Israel. Together with their efforts to incite, arm, and foment unrest amongst Israel’s Arab citizenry, the Iranians believe they can deliver a decisive blow against Israel from within Israel’s own borders, as part of their genocidal crusade to ultimately defeat and destroy it.
The coordinated and targeted use of improvised explosive devices against Israeli military vehicles in the terrorist hornet’s nest of Jenin the other week, put images to the terms “Lebanonization” and “Gaza-fication” of Judea and Samaria. Seven Israeli soldiers and Border Policemen were wounded in the incident. Such weaponry and tactics are out of the ordinary – to say the least – in Judea and Samaria since Operation Defensive Shield two decades ago.
During the same battle in Jenin, Israeli forces were able to apprehend the two terrorists they were seeking, while organized teams of enemy gunmen attacked them and tried to down an IAF helicopter, with several of the gunmen being killed or wounded in the process. These are scenes Israelis are more accustomed to from Gaza and even more so from Lebanon, both of which Iran long ago turned into forward operating bases – again Lebanonization and Gaza-fication.
As reported in The Jerusalem Post, an official source in Ramallah stated that “Iran is already here in the West Bank [Judea and Samaria].” The source went on to say that the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, the armed faction of Abbas’s own ruling Fatah party, had increased even further its cooperation with Islamic Jihad and Iran.
As I have written about before, this is part and parcel of Iran’s broader strategy of creating a highly coordinated and integrated ring of fire encircling Israel, in order to attack it from outside in, and inside out. In fact, the Ramallah source went on to state that Iran seeks to have its “agents” as he put it, in control in Gaza as well as in Judea and Samaria.
A day after the battle in Jenin terrorists murdered four Israeli civilians at a gas station just outside the town of Eli in the Binyamin region. There too, relatively sophisticated tactics and high-quality light arms were used to perpetrate the ruthless attack.
The terrorists used separate vehicles for ingress and egress to the site of the attack, in an attempt to confuse Israeli security forces both in responding and later investigating the attack. It was not effective as one gunman was eliminated by an armed civilian at the scene and the second shortly after by Israeli forces.
From the short video footage released of the attack, the terrorists can be seen handling the assault rifles they used in a manner that evidences a certain level of training, which no longer has necessarily to be conducted at a formal encampment or base, but can be provided online via social networks, video games, and YouTube-style video clips – something Iranian intelligence and security forces along with their proxies can deploy easily and cheaply.
Hamas and Islamic Jihad need not risk exposure with formal training camps in Area A of Judea and Samaria (not under Israeli civilian or security control). They and other terrorist factions can rely on “Uncle Ayatollah” to provide a much lower signature solution for certain terrorist activities, while also cooperating with Iran on cultivating more sophisticated capabilities and operations, such as smuggling high-quality weaponry into Judea and Samaria by various means and via various routes, including Syria and Jordan.
It is also quite obvious that vicious terrorist attacks against civilians as everyday easily accessible targets do not demand prolonged and intricate training regimens which would require “in person” participation.
The actual weapons used in the Eli murder spree also illustrate a step up in capabilities for terrorists now emboldened to conduct more serious attacks in Judea and Samaria. Those weapons were not the improvised sub-machine guns manufactured in small clandestine workshops such as the “Carlo” – which has become ubiquitous over the years in shooting attacks by terrorists in Judea and Samaria, and other parts of Israel – they were high quality M16 assault rifles or variants thereof.
At almost the same time that Israeli security forces encountered the sophisticated ambush in Jenin and terror struck at Eli; senior Hamas and Islamic Jihad officials were holding meetings with top Iranian officials, including Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran. It seems the Iranians are not even troubling themselves to obfuscate the dramatic moves they are attempting in Judea and Samaria.
The Lebanonization or Gaza-fication of Judea and Samaria however, is not realistic, at least not in a significant way.
That is because, as opposed to southern Lebanon or Gaza, Israel is present militarily and civilly in the area. The IDF and Israeli security forces can move and operate throughout the territory of Judea and Samaria – and as evidence of the importance Israel places on that freedom of movement and operation, it has once again deployed air power to ensure it.
If necessary, heavier weaponry, armor, and mechanized forces will also have to be deployed in order to prevent places like Jenin and Nablus (Shechem) from going back in time 20 years and once again becoming fortified terrorist strongholds – this time strongholds more directly supported and commanded by Iran.
Preventing the region from turning into an Iranian forward operating base
Israel’s civilian presence in Judea and Samaria, beyond being its historic and natural right, is crucial in preventing the area’s transformation into an Iranian forward operating base. Israeli villages, towns, and cities throughout Judea and Samaria ensure that the territory they are located on is not honeycombed with terror tunnels, dotted with missile launch sites, and filled with arms caches and jihadists.
That said, the ominous attempts by Hamas and Islamic Jihad to manufacture and launch rockets in Judea and Samaria, which seem to have become bolder in recent days, are part and parcel of the disturbing picture the Israeli public has been given of Iran’s plans for the region.
It makes clear that Israel in tandem with a strong and comprehensive military/security response to the growing threats in Judea and Samaria, must also start taking significant steps on the civil front. The announcement of new housing and construction in Eli – in response to the terrorist attack there – is critically important and demonstrates the resilience and determination of the state and nation.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s reported statement earlier this month to MKs at a closed-door session of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that Israel “needs to crush the ambition” for an independent Arab state in Judea and Samaria, could not have been conveyed at a more critical juncture given the recent surge in terrorism and Iran’s sinister designs.
Progress towards declaring official Israeli sovereignty over the Jordan Valley, and eventually other areas of Judea and Samaria, while at the same time making clear Israel’s intention [especially to our partners and allies in the Gulf region] to maintain and improve Arab civic autonomy in population centers such as Jenin or Ramallah, will further Israel’s stymieing of Iran’s plans.
Such a paradigm shift has the capacity to create new and far-reaching opportunities.
In the longer term, circumstances could ripen to allow for an extended self-rule and stability plan for said Arab population centers. Something along the lines of a San Marino or Vatican City autonomous polity, or a series of city-substates, within the State of Israel. One thing is clear, Judea and Samaria will not be allowed to transform into a Gaza, nor will it become a southern Lebanon.
The writer is an Israeli hi-tech entrepreneur and a member of the Israel Leadership Forum. He is involved with various Israel-advocacy causes including working with Christian Zionist and pro-Israel Noahide groups.