If all goes according to plan, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi will be re-confirmed in office before the end of the year, and will – heaven willing – be in power until 2030 at least.
Whether he will then retire gracefully from the political scene, only time will tell.
When he was last reelected, in 2018, Egypt’s constitution specified that the president could serve no more than two terms, each of four years. But constitutions can be amended. By 2019 any president of Egypt could serve three terms, and the presidential term of office was extended to six years.
On September 30, the Egyptian public could not avoid the launch of a three-day government backed national conference titled “The Story of a Homeland,” broadcast in its entirety by the Extra News TV channel, which is reputed to have close links to Egyptian security agencies.
The event was staged at the Al-Massa Hotel in the prestigious New Administrative Capital, under the patronage and in the presence of the president – with the country’s leading politicians and a large number of Egyptian society representatives in attendance.
It was toward the end of that event, during which a range of projects implemented over the past nine years were heavily promoted, that Sisi announced that he would be standing in the forthcoming presidential election.
His official term of office does not end until March 2024, but he had decided to bring the vote forward by six months.
In the hours leading up to Sisi’s announcement, correspondents reported patriotic music blaring from speakers across the capital, where convoys of buses, shrink-wrapped with campaign slogans, blocked major streets. Meanwhile, sails of boats on the Nile were emblazoned with Sisi’s photo and slogans including “Yes to stability.”
The National Elections Authority has stipulated that the presidential election will be held over three days, from December 10-12, with the result to be announced on December 18.
In the unlikely event of no candidate receiving more than 50% of the vote (in 2018 Sisi was reported to have secured 97%), a runoff would be held from January 8-10.
The qualification criteria for aspiring presidential candidates are formidable. Anyone wishing to stand must secure the backing of either 20 members of parliament or at least 25,000 members of the public, drawn from 15 different governorates. All nominations had to be registered by October 14.
Opposition politician Ahmed al-Tantawi – acknowledged to be Sisi’s most formidable opponent – said, early on, that he will run, and accused security agencies of arresting some of his supporters. Other candidates announcing their bids include Farid Zahran, head of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party; Abdel-Sanad Yamama, head of the Wafd Party; and Gameela Ismail, head of the liberal Constitution (Dostour) Party.
Opposition parties said that individuals seeking to support anti-Sisi candidates have been obstructed from doing so.
DURING A press conference on October 4, individuals provided details of how they had been blocked in various ways.
Rania el-Sheik said she had been trying to register to support Tantawi when a scuffle broke out at the notary’s office provoked, she said, by “thugs.”
“In every place, public employees have predetermined reasons [for obstructing the process]” she declared. “‘The system is down’; ‘the Internet isn’t working’; ‘the power is cut’; ‘your ID card isn’t showing for us.’”
Tantawi’s campaign team has complained that people trying to register support for him have been blocked, and that more than 80 of his supporters have been arrested. Tantawi has repeatedly accused the regime of harassing and detaining his supporters, preventing them from filing nominations, and tapping his phone. His campaign has been posting videos of him accompanying supporters to registry offices.
“In the end, they won’t be able to say ‘sorry, you don’t have enough nominations,’” he told supporters.
Magdy Hamdan, a Conservative Party official, said he was also blocked from submitting his endorsement at one notary’s office. When he tried to enter a second, a group of men brought in some rubbish collectors and beggars and began spraying them – and him – with water.
Egypt’s National Election Authority said it has investigated complaints and that such allegations are baseless. The final list of qualified candidates will be released on November 9.
Egypt: A nation in the midst of an economic crisis
Egypt is in the midst of an economic crisis. Record inflation and a shortage of foreign currency have caused the Egyptian pound to lose more than 50% of its value against the dollar in the last 18 months. Foreign debt has soared to a record high of $165.4 billion this year, which experts say has been largely used to fund a range of megaprojects including the new $58-billion New Administrative Capital.
In consequence, the country’s external debt bill has tripled in the past 10 years, and about half the 2023/24 budget is allocated to debt servicing.
Prior to the crisis, roughly 30% of the population was already living below the poverty line, with an additional 30% considered vulnerable to poverty. More recently, Egypt has been hit hard by the fallout from the war in Ukraine: Egypt is the world’s largest wheat importer and has traditionally purchased most of its grain from eastern Europe.
Most democratic governments would strive to improve matters before seeking a new mandate.
One reason why Sisi might have decided on an early election (thus depriving himself of six months in power) is that he adjudged that by March 2024 the situation is likely to have become worse rather than better, with the consequential loss of public support.
On the other hand, economic relief might be forthcoming from a deal with the United States.
Word has it that the US might waive a chunk of debt repayment in exchange for Egypt agreeing to allow a certain number of Gazan refugees in, by way of the Rafah crossing.
Given his grip on power, Sisi will certainly win his third term in office, but he knows that a long, hard, uphill struggle lies ahead.
The writer is the Middle East correspondent for Eurasia Review. His latest book is Trump and the Holy Land: 2016-2020. Follow him at a-mid-east-journal.blogspot.com