On June 13, 2025, Iran suffered a wide-scale Israeli strike that changed the face of the region. The attack focused on military and nuclear assets, as well as the elimination of senior commanders. But beyond the military objectives, the attack was designed to undermine the foundations on which Iran relied as a regional power, creating a new situation that requires all players in the arena to recalculate their course.
The events of what must be called “Black Friday the 13th” mark the deepest crisis the Islamic Republic has experienced since the 1979 revolution.
A void at the top
The elimination of Hossein Salami, commander of the Revolutionary Guards, and Esmail Qaani, commander of the Quds Force, resulted in the cumulative loss of decades of experience, connections, and influence. These were leaders who were an integral part of mediating between Iran and the proxy networks it built in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and the Gaza Strip.
The Israeli attack simultaneously struck critical infrastructure such as ammunition depots, missile launch sites, command facilities, and air defense bases. According to foreign sources, Israel pre-deployed agents on the ground that enabled precise coordination and penetration of unidentified systems. This is a deep Iranian intelligence failure that shakes both public confidence and command ranks.
Iranian command and control systems collapsed rapidly as well. Proxy organizations found themselves cut off from guidance. Facilities considered fortified were destroyed with relative ease. The message was clear: Iranian capabilities look impressive on paper but do not stand up to the real test.
In an attempt to stabilize the sinking and swaying ship, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Mohammad Pakpour as commander of the Revolutionary Guards, and Abd al-Rahim Mousavi from the regular army ranks as chief of staff. Two appointments intended to balance between the branches of power and limit the accumulation of influence in the hands of one player at a time when the entire system is shaking.
Some say that Khamenei was not eliminated due to an American consideration to keep the door open for a future diplomatic agreement, hoping to deliver a foreign policy win for the Trump administration.
If this path closes, it is likely that Khamenei will not survive for long, either.
A military failure embodied: The Iranian missile project exposed in its nakedness
Iran invested huge capital in developing its ballistic missile arsenal. Government media marketed the result as a technological success, with accuracy levels above 90 percent. In practice, the Iranian response to the attack aimed at the Nevatim base in Israel proved completely otherwise.
Most missiles missed their target by hundreds of meters. Analyses of the impact results showed typical deviations of half a kilometer or more. Of about 3,000 missiles in the Iranian arsenal, only about 1,000 are capable of reaching Israel, and only a few of them are equipped with advanced navigation systems. The chance of a real hit on a fortified military target is almost zero.
The bottom line is clear: Iranian missiles create panic and sometimes hit civilians but do not provide real military advantage. The regime in Tehran faces an ongoing dilemma between a symbolic attack that will trigger a powerful response and silence that will be interpreted as weakness.
Defense systems failed to provide an answer
The penetration of Israeli fighter jets deep into Iran without detection or interception exposed a deep systemic failure. Iran purchased advanced S-300 systems from Moscow intended to provide significant air defense precisely for such situations. In practice, Israel not only bypassed the defense systems but also systematically eliminated them, including radar stations, control centers, and missile batteries.
Tehran currently has no effective defense layer on the ground.
The collapse of the alliance system
The Axis of Resistance that Iran built over the years is crumbling. Hezbollah suffered a severe blow with the elimination of secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah and the destruction of ammunition depots. The fall of Bashar Assad’s regime severed the supply routes between Tehran and Beirut. The Houthis in Yemen are still launching missiles toward Saudi Arabia and Israel, but IDF and international coalition operations have severely damaged their capabilities. Without central Iranian management, the activation of proxies becomes reactive, uncoordinated, and mostly lacking strategic effectiveness.
The nuclear equation changes
Iran’s nuclear strategy was built on the principle of ambiguity: gradual and careful progress without crossing the red lines marked by the West. Thus Tehran managed to accumulate influence and negotiating leverage without risking a comprehensive attack.
Friday the 13th’s attack shuffles the deck. The Natanz facility was severely damaged, but Fordow remains operational. According to estimates, Iran can reach production of fissile material within weeks. Completing a combat warhead would require a year or more. But the pressure to accelerate development is growing, especially when the military system in its current state does not provide credible deterrence.
Economy collapsing, society snapping
Even without the attack, the Iranian economy was at rock bottom. The International Monetary Fund predicted 43% inflation in 2025, increased unemployment, and zero growth. The state budget was built on an assumption of oil barrel prices of $100-$150, while the market stands at a price hovering around only $66.
The Iranian regime justified the hardships with external threats and the vision of regional leadership. But when there is no power, there is also no justification. The public is losing patience, especially in large cities, among youth, women, and the middle classes.
World response: Maintaining distance and tactical caution
- Gulf states. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar expressed reservations about the Israeli attack, but in practice they were happy to see Tehran weakened. For them, this is a reduction of a direct threat. The condemnations were coordinated but lacking passion. Their main concern was becoming an alternative target.
- China. China walks between the drops. On one hand, it is dependent on Iranian oil and has huge economic projects with Tehran. On the other hand, it seeks to maintain investment relations with Israel and avoid confrontation with Washington. The result: limited support, measured messages, and no open alignment with the Iranian side.
- Taiwan is watching carefully. The penetration of security systems, lack of effective response, and functioning of civil society under fire – all are analyzed as preparation for a future confrontation with China itself.
- Russia. Russia is at the height of the crisis in Ukraine. It is not available to open another front in the Middle East. Its support of Iran is limited to diplomacy, public statements, and intelligence. Nothing beyond that.
Scenarios
- Short term. If the regime holds on, it will focus on rehabilitating security systems and increasing internal repression. No large-scale military action is expected. The nuclear project will be secretly accelerated.
- Medium term. If there is no internal collapse, Iran will adopt indirect tactics such as cyber, terrorism, and activation of proxies. Nuclear development will become a central goal. If regime change occurs, a change in approach is possible, but the threat base will not disappear.
- Long term. Iran is no longer the dominant force in the Middle East. We may see a region divided among several centers without one hegemony. The question is whether Iran will manage to obtain nuclear weapons before it disintegrates from within.
Warning lights
- Acceleration in the nuclear program, which includes excavations and withdrawal from treaties
- Rehabilitation of missile capabilities and coordinated action among proxies
- Deep internal crisis expressed in demonstrations, defections, and splits at the top
Friday the 13th attack – Where are we headed?
Israel acted at the peak of a short window of opportunity, attempting to disrupt the height of Iranian consolidation and prevent nuclear realization. The strike was massive, comprehensive, and systemic: on facilities, command, and ability to respond.
Iran remains beaten, exposed, and without real backup. It is still a dangerous player but in an inferior position.
The attack changed the face of the region. Time will tell if its face is turning toward peace.■