Trillion-dollar tax cuts for billionaires don’t pay for themselves, so President Donald Trump and the Republican Congress decided that the MAGA faithful – and their descendants – could show their loyalty by carrying the bulk of the burden imposed by the misnamed $3.3-trillion Big Beautiful Bill.
Drafters apparently counted on the faithful not noticing that the benefits would take effect right away but the draconian cuts in health care and food stamps won’t show up until after next year’s midterm elections. And with MAGA-loving media outlets like Fox reporting the administration’s own version of “facts” and the mainstream media increasingly bullied into silence, they might just get away with it.
The legislation passed along party lines. That was intentional. Republicans made no effort to court bipartisan support for a measure designed in no small part to be a midterm election cudgel to use against the Democrats.
Cynical Republican lawmakers knew it was a bad bill and some said so publicly. Few, if any, even bothered reading the entire 887-page document, but they voted for it rather than offend Trump because they fear him more than their constituents back home.
The red states will pay the greatest price
As the MAGA president shifts the burden of healthcare, food assistance, and other services from federal to state governments, the greatest impact will be felt by the poor red states – ironically, the solid base of his political movement.
It’s not politics or ideology, it’s geography.
Tragedies like last week’s deadly floods along the Guadalupe River in Texas that killed more than 100 people, including dozens of children, illustrate the need for early warning, and rescue and recovery assistance that this administration wants to curtail.
Trump, notorious for taking credit for everything and responsibility for nothing, denied his cutbacks had any role in meeting the Texas disaster and tried to blame it on his predecessor. It was a “Biden setup,” he insisted.
The National Weather Service is cutting its forecast, watch, and warning services, the Pentagon will soon stop sharing vital satellite weather tracking data, and the president has said he wants to “wean off” FEMA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, possibly shutting it down by the end of this year’s hurricane season. His answer: let the states carry the burden.
The states that will carry the heaviest burden are his base, the solid red states in heartland tornado alley, the coastal hurricane paths and the western forests that tend to suffer the greatest damage from weather, fire and other natural disasters. Texas and Florida have received about $18 billion each in federal disaster assistance, but not all red states are as rich.
Those like Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, South Carolina, and Wyoming must rely heavily on FEMA and other federal help in times of crisis. Yet every Republican from those states voted for the Big Bad Billionaire Bailout Bill with its $4.5 trillion in tax breaks, spending cuts, and anti-immigration measures.
Trump, always striving to show he is the most unpresidential of presidents, told the world he hates Democrats and questions their patriotism. “I really do; I hate them. I cannot stand them.” He claims the feeling is mutual. Maybe he also hates Republicans, too. Consider this.
Seven of the ten poorest states that have the most households experiencing hunger and rely on federal food and healthcare assistance voted for Trump. Two states that will suffer the most from cuts in federal Medicaid funds are Mississippi and West Virginia.
In House Speaker Mike Johnson’s Louisiana, 18% of residents receive food stamp benefits, yet he led the fight to slash aid.
West Virginia is one of the hardest hit and poorest states. An estimated one in three in the Mountain State are dependent on government health insurance for the poor. The head of the state’s Rural Health Association has said at least five hospitals in the state may be forced to close as a result. Yet its entire congressional delegation voted for all the cuts in federal assistance.
Does Trump know or care that his supporters will be hit hardest?
Does Trump know what is in his bill besides his talking points? Some GOP lawmakers who met with him suggested he didn’t, particularly regarding Medicaid and Social Security benefits. Although he reportedly told Republicans in a closed-door meeting “Don’t f*** around with Medicaid,” they proceeded to cut an estimated $800 million and take coverage away from nearly 12 million people, which he blessed with his signature.
The Bulwark’s Andrew Egger noted that “the bill’s changes to Medicaid will hit many of Trump’s own supporters, who tend to be poorer and more rural, the hardest.” The White House shrugged off such charges, insisting the only ones harmed will be cheats, frauds, and illegal aliens.
Hiring freezes in national parks mean not only health and safety risks but also threaten the tourism income in states like Wyoming, Montana, South Dakota, Utah, and Idaho.
Alabama and West Virginia will see deep cuts for valuable research programs.
American farmers, another pillar of the GOP base, have been hit hard. Immigration raids have created labor shortages, particularly in seasonal harvests, and Trump’s tariff wars are closing major foreign markets.
Dismantling USAID, which annually bought some $2 billion worth of US crops to feed millions of the world’s neediest, could lead to more than 14 million deaths over the next five years, according to The Lancet medical journal. The agency also provided medical care, clean water and other humanitarian assistance. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, an ardent AID supporter while in the Senate, has become its executioner.
Here at home an estimated five million people could lose food assistance under the Big Ugly Bill, and 17 million could lose their health insurance, “resulting in premature death for at least 100,000 of them,” according to The Washington Post.
This could be the best and the worst of times for Trump. He got his Big Bragging Rights Bill, but Republicans could pay the price at the polls 16 months from now.
Taxes will be cut for his family and his biggest contributors, but his base in red states will be paying the bills (along with the rest of us) for generations to come.
Democrats feel they were just handed issues they badly need to help them retake control of Congress – if they can get their act together.
The writer is a Washington-based journalist, consultant, lobbyist, and a former legislative director at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.