It has been more than 675 days since October 7, 2023, at the time of writing, and after endless negotiations and military operations, we need to face the harsh and unfortunate reality that the hostages may not come back. Hamas is a radical terrorist organization and an Islamist jihadist group that will die for its cursed goals. A deal will happen only if Hamas finds it preferable to make a deal than to not make one. Unfortunately, after almost two years, it simply does not seem realistic.
Let's take a look at the last two deals: The first one was announced on November 22, 2023 – around 50 days after the start of the war. Hamas was feeling the pressure. The IDF had entered Gaza and from Hamas’s perspective, swapping several hostages for a greater number of terrorist prisoners held in Israel, in addition to a week’s pause in the fighting, was a good deal. Hamas had time to reorganize itself, making this deal seem profitable to it – it got to keep a significant number of the hostages and saw less pressure from Qatar and Egypt.
In the second deal, which was seven months ago, the situation was completely different; the IDF had already entered Rafah and held a significant part of the Gaza Strip. This time, Hamas gained two months’ pause in the fighting, more than 2,000 terrorists released – some of them with life sentences – and also much-needed humanitarian aid. And even then, the terrorist organization still holds 20 aces – 20 hostages who are still alive, including IDF soldiers and young men.
Hostages: Hamas's final cards to play
Israel has shown its full commitment to Hamas's elimination. In Hamas's eyes, if it loses those cards, it will be fully unprotected from the IDF, which, to some extent, avoided risking the lives of hostages by entering areas that were known to have hostages.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated several times that Israel will not accept any form of Hamas or Fatah rule in the Gaza Strip.
Hamas seems to be holding onto its last aces and is dragging progress on the deal, as stated by the US. Israel had accepted several proposals made by US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, but Hamas keeps making unacceptable demands for a near-total IDF withdrawal from Gaza – something that seems impossible after almost two years of the IDF fighting to ensure Israel’s security.
It seems that in all the previously pitched deals, Hamas didn’t have to lose all of its cards, and it gained more than it lost. But now, Hamas sees that its final cards are the most valuable, since they prevent – at least to some extent – Israel from a final major operation that would endanger the hostages.
Hamas is a radical terrorist organization that is making impossible demands in exchange for peace, but those demands are the only things that will make it give up its last few aces. At this point, we need to process and understand that unless something extraordinary happens, we may never see those hostages again.
I hope and pray that the hostages will return, but in the current situation, we may have to face the fact that Hamas won't give up its aces, and we may not see the last 20 hostages come back.
The writer is a 15-year-old student from Tel Aviv. He is passionate about geopolitics, and he is currently studying at Shimon Peres High Tech and Arts in Tel Aviv. Until 2023, he operated a geopolitical commentary news site.