It feels like déjà vu.
With the IDF offensive in Gaza aimed at defeating Hamas once and for all ramping up for nearly a month, the terror group that launched the October 7 massacre and caused the decimation of the coastal enclave has repeated its offer, made many times since the nearly two-year war began.
In a statement issued on Wednesday night, Hamas proposed a deal that would involve releasing all of the hostages, living and dead, who are being held in Gaza, in exchange for ending the war and the withdrawal of IDF forces.
The proposal also included the release of Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli prisons, opening the border crossings to allow massive aid, and the beginning of a reconstruction process. Hamas also agreed on a “national administration” to take over the management of Gaza.
The proposal was made, coincidentally or not, following US President Donald Trump’s post calling for Hamas to “IMMEDIATELY give back all 20 hostages! Not 2 or 5 or 7!”
The impetus for the Hamas declaration was more likely connected to the pressure exerted by the IDF’s actions in Gaza City, the last Hamas stronghold in Gaza.
There has been a massive call-up of reservists, and Hamas sees that a ground operation, which is planned for the coming days, will be devastating for its survival.
The scare tactics have worked, and Hamas is afraid. Although most ministers in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet are bullish on his intent to push forward and implement the full Gaza City takeover, entailing evacuating some million residents, now is the time to take stock and reassess the situation.
Israel’s conditions for ending the war are different to those of Hamas. They entail the dismantling of Hamas’ military and political capabilities; the immediate release of all the hostages; the demilitarization of Gaza; Israel having “overriding security control” in Gaza for the “foreseeable future”; and the imposition of a civil authority in Gaza, which excludes Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.
Defense Minister Israel Katz dismissed Hamas’s proposal out of hand, calling it “empty words.”
“Hamas continues to deceive… but it will soon understand that it must choose between two options,” Katz said. “Accepting Israel’s conditions to end the war: first and foremost, the release of all hostages and disarmament, or Gaza City will become like Rafah and Beit Hanun. The IDF is fully prepared.”
Changes of freeing all hostages through military means very slim
There is no long-range game plan for the “day after” Hamas in Gaza, and the chances of freeing all of the hostages in a painstaking military campaign are slim, despite the assurances of the prime minister.
His aims of defeating Hamas and rescuing the hostages are unfortunately almost mutually exclusive.
It’s becoming more and more apparent that the only way to bring the hostages home alive is through a diplomatic deal, not through a military conquest.
We agree with Katz that Hamas cannot be trusted, but if there’s a chance to retrieve hostages – either through a partial deal that Hamas has agreed to (10 hostages for a 60-day ceasefire) or the new/old proposal issued Wednesday, it would be remiss of Israel to dismiss it without discussion involving both the political and military leadership.
It would be a tragedy for Hamas to survive and retain control of Gaza. It would leave Israel at risk of attack and another October 7 in the not-too-distant future. However, it would be a greater tragedy to ignore the possibility of a deal that would bring home the country’s citizens, who have been living (barely) in unspeakable conditions for nearly 700 days.
Israel is stuck between a rock and a hard place. We’ve achieved massive success in Gaza in weakening Hamas, but the final blow can only come with a horrible price for the hostages’ lives. We must choose the option that provides hope for their return and reserves the option to ultimately finish off Hamas at the time and in the setting of our choice.
As much effort, energy, and resources as we plan to devote to taking over Gaza City, must also be exerted to secure a diplomatic deal.
Return high-level delegations to Qatar or Egypt and stay there until the white smoke rises.
The Hamas offer to end the war may be the same as it was last year. But for Israel, it’s different. The hostages have been in captivity that much longer, and their lives, always precarious, are on the line. All doors must be left open before they’re shut for good.