The tantalizing prospect of normalization with Saudi Arabia is something various US officials – including US President Donald Trump – have dangled before Israeli eyes for months. The idea was that after the Gaza war ended and after Washington re-engaged energetically in the region, Riyadh would finally take the fateful step and join the Abraham Accords.
That mirage flickered again last week, when Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) arrived in Washington for a lavish White House reception that provided the perfect backdrop for the announcement of a historic breakthrough. It wasn’t to be.
Despite the red carpet, the military bands, and Trump’s extravagant embrace – complete with promises of advanced weaponry, security guarantees, and talk of deepening US-Saudi strategic ties – MBS stuck to a firm, unmistakable line: Saudi Arabia is open to normalization, but only if Israel agrees to an “irreversible, credible” pathway to a Palestinian state.
In other words: not now, and not at a price that would be unacceptable to any Israeli leader for the foreseeable future.
According to accounts of the closed-door meeting between Trump and MBS, the president pressed hard – even bluntly – for movement.
He wanted a win, the next big expansion of the Abraham Accords, the centerpiece to the post-war regional diplomacy he is trying to drive. But the crown prince did not budge. He cited Saudi public opinion, deeply hostile to Israel after October 7, and said plainly that the kingdom could not advance normalization without a concrete political horizon for the Palestinians.
The public opinion argument is striking not because it is unfamiliar, but because it is treated so differently depending on who makes it.
When MBS points to public opinion as a restriction, it is heard in many circles in Washington and beyond as a solemn political reality.
When Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu points to Israeli public opinion, which is overwhelmingly opposed to a Palestinian state, as reflected in recent polls and Knesset votes, the same claim is received with impatience, as if it were little more than a negotiating posture.
The double standard is hard to miss. If Saudi public opinion is treated in Washington as an immovable obstacle, Israel deserves the same deference when it points to its own public’s deep, broad opposition to a Palestinian state.
Creation of a Palestinian state seen as a threat to Israel
A Palestinian state may sound nice on paper, but in Israel’s post-October 7 reality, it is widely seen as an existential threat. Normalization with Saudi Arabia has clear strategic, economic, and symbolic value, but not at the price of abandoning Israel’s core security doctrine or ignoring the hard lessons learned over the past two years.
There is another uncomfortable truth beneath last week’s spectacle. Saudi Arabia walked away with a great deal simply by showing up in Washington: public rehabilitation after years of being treated as untouchable; movement toward nuclear cooperation; the prospect of eventually acquiring fifth-generation American fighter planes; and the designation as a major non-NATO US ally.
All of this came without Riyadh taking a single meaningful step toward Israel. Much of this reflects Washington’s desire to anchor Riyadh firmly in the American orbit at a time when global competition with China has become a defining strategic priority.
This broader context is sobering for Israel. Saudi Arabia today has options — including dancing with Beijing and Moscow — and is using those suitors to negotiate with the US from a position of strength. MBS can afford to be patient. He can say “not yet” to normalization and can make no meaningful gestures toward Israel, yet continue to receive major dividends from Washington.
Israel, for its part, should keep the door to normalization open. Peace with Riyadh remains a historic opportunity. But Israel need not dance to Saudi Arabia’s tune, and certainly not with concessions that run counter to its basic security interests. There is nothing wrong with saying no when the price is too high.
Saudi Arabia has made its conditions unmistakably clear. And Israel’s task is to respond with the same clarity: normalization is desirable and welcome, but not at the cost of committing to a Palestinian state that most Israelis – based on recent history and a sober reading of the current Middle East realities – believe would endanger their security and the country’s future.
Normalization with the Saudis? Yes, definitely. At any cost? No thanks.