It’s a scenario that has repeated itself since 1999: massive protests in Iran, predictions that this time it could be the end of the ayatollahs’ regime, a violent crackdown, and the eventual petering out of the demonstrations.
It happened in 1999–2000 with student protests, again in 2009–2010 with the Green Movement, in 2017–2018 with protests over economic distress, in 2019 following a sudden spike in fuel prices, in 2021 amid shortages of water and bread, and again in 2022–2023 with the “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini.
And now it is happening again.
Tens of thousands of brave Iranians have taken to the streets since Saturday, initially over the collapse of the rial, but quickly chanting slogans that leave no doubt about the depth of their anger: “Death to the dictator.”
Following the pummeling Iran suffered during the June 12-Day War, many in Israel and the West believed that internal upheaval would follow – that a regime that squandered national wealth on a nuclear program largely destroyed and on regional proxies roundly defeated would finally face a reckoning from within.
Could this be the moment Iranians have been waiting for?
That did not happen. Instead, the world witnessed demonstrations inside the country, rallying around the government.
But now something has stirred. Could this be the moment when the Iranian masses finally throw off the yoke of their oppressive leaders? Or is this just another protest that will eventually fizzle and die, leaving no real change in its wake?
While it is too early to tell, history cautions against premature celebration.
As the world watches, a key question arises: How can the West and Israel support the protesters without inadvertently giving the regime ammunition to use against them, casting them as foreign tools?
The West is faced with a paradox: if it provides support, this will be used by the regime to delegitimize the protesters. But if it doesn’t, the protesters will feel abandoned.
This is a dilemma Israel faces acutely. Jerusalem would love to see a different regime in Iran – one no longer exporting violence and mayhem across the region. But if Israeli fingerprints are visible on the protests, the regime’s propaganda efforts become easy.
This week’s Mossad statement in Farsi to the protesters – “Let’s come out to the streets together. The time has come. We are with you, not just from afar and verbally. We are with you in the field as well”– may have been intended to strengthen resolve.
But it handed Tehran exactly what it wanted: a pretext to blame Israel and frame the protests as a foreign plot. It was a classic case of good intentions producing the opposite result.
This doesn’t mean Israel and the West should stand aside and do nothing. It does mean they should act differently.
Change in Iran is unlikely to arrive in a single, dramatic, fall-of-the-Berlin-Wall moment. It is more likely to come through cumulative erosion: economic pressure and the slow weakening of the regime’s tools of control.
The economic sanctions against Iran are having an effect, contributing to the inflation and currency collapse that ignited the current protests. These sanctions should be tightened.
But sanctions alone are not enough.
The most effective support the West can give the protesters now is technical, not rhetorical. This includes providing means to ensure internet access, VPNs, encrypted communications, and satellite connectivity to directly counter the regime’s control over information.
The US and its allies should also target those providing Iran with the tools of repression – providers of surveillance technology to Iran’s security apparatus, as well as Iranian telecommunications companies that implement censorship practices.
The West also needs to step up support for Iranian diaspora organizations. These groups can provide material and moral assistance at arm’s length from governments, helping protesters without tainting them as foreign proxies.
Furthermore, strike funds – financed from seized Iranian assets – could help workers participating in strikes and boycotts so that they are not forced back into silence by economic desperation.
This approach was used effectively during the Cold War to back Poland’s Solidarity movement. Iran’s protesters have already shown tremendous courage. What they need now is not only applause but carefully thought-out support that endures.
The measure of solidarity is not how forcefully it is declared, but whether it leaves those risking their lives stronger rather than more vulnerable.