The Iranian leadership is in total disarray. They are confused. Usually so sure and confident and strident, it is the combination of US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that is throwing Tehran off its game.
Iran is unable to predict how these two leaders, their nemeses, will act and react. That confusion, from the point of view of the US and Israel, is by design.
They know that the US and Israel have Iran exactly where they want it.
The playbook of Iranian strategy with the West has always been cost-benefit calculations.
They navigate how to push and pull to achieve their ends using proxies and others who are friendly to their regime. Their intention is to effectively poke and prod and irritate and, in the end, achieve their goals while hovering just below the threshold of provoking a serious retaliatory response.
A symbolic retaliation is acceptable to Iran – but nothing more. The goal is to make certain that their behavior niggles and irritates but never reaches the point of a serious, crushing response from the West.
Trump’s style is deliberately unpredictable.
Trump cultivates a character of ambiguity. He says one thing one day and the opposite the next. He uses the media, especially his account on his own Truth Social, to bark out fluctuating ideas, leaving Iran totally flatfooted. His intended result is to leave Iran in the dark on issues of foreign policy and domestic policy.
Over the years, Iran had learned to wrap the West, especially the US, around their little finger.
President after US president fell into the trap.
Iranian leaders became masters of manipulation – agreeing to a deal and then only, intentionally, partially fulfilling their commitment. It was all premeditated. They danced around the edges of an agreement but would never violate it enough to cause the West to fully repudiate the agreement.
Until Trump, Iran was successful.
Just look at the now infamous Iranian deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
Iran knew that the West would tolerate minor violations because the West wanted so very badly to keep the deal.
It took Trump to call them out and say “no”. To say, in typical Trump style, that it was not merely a “very bad” deal, that it was the “worst deal ever”. And it was the US that withdrew.
Netanyahu has his own style. And it was he who had the credibility to both whisper in Trump’s ear and say out loud, “told you so.”
Iran knows, correctly, that Israel will do anything and everything to protect itself. They know Israel will act and react – that is not their biggest issue.
Their issue is that, based on past events and reactions, Iran cannot predict if, when, or even where Israel will react. They clearly remember, however, that in ‘Operation Days of Repentance’, on October 26, 2024, the IDF air force hit 20 Iranian targets, destroying Iran’s entire supply of S-300 anti-aircraft batteries.
Netanyahu is too unpredictable for Iran
Israel, under Netanyahu, has made it impossible for Iran to determine the threshold or red line for retaliation. They are left in a strategic conundrum. The situation makes them very uncomfortable. It renders them unable to act with security.
This literally defangs Iran’s greatest weapon – its ability to strike with impunity. They know Israel will hit. They will hit back literally and not hit back symbolically.
In a world where Trump is president and Netanyahu is prime minister, Iran cannot create a strategic plan. They cannot designate their red line and accurately anticipate actions or responses.
With the combination of Trump and Netanyahu, you just never know. So Iran is stuck. Is John Bolton correct and the policy is muddled, or is it an issue of US inter-agency conflict, or maybe, is it the impulsive actions of a capricious president? They simply do not know.
Right now, in real terms, almost all of Iran’s efforts are directed internally. To survive, they must maintain their regime at all costs. The ultimate goal of this Iranian regime is its continuity.
That is where we are today. Never forget that.
The writer is a columnist and a social and political commentator. Watch his new TV show, Thinking Out Loud, on JBS.