The old world order is dead: Israel must prepare for what comes next - opinion

That order was like a fantastically rich uncle: charitable, generous, and graceful when alive, getting sick, and then finally, after a long, protracted terminal illness, passing away. His family, gathering around the lifeless body, totally dependent on his grace and still in shock, is unable to come to terms with the death and thus hesitant to announce the unfortunate passing away.

It took Rubio, a person of courage and perhaps lacking sentimental attachment to the body, to play the role of the attending pathologist and finally pronounce what everyone knew for quite some time: that the Old World Order is dead.

Israel is not arriving at this moment empty-handed. It has had experience, though not completely positive, dealing with the issues back when the old order was alive and kicking. Earlier than anyone else, Israel found itself in the crosshairs between Washington and Beijing. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, China, embarking on modernizing its military, was looking for the sources of modern, sophisticated, hi-tech hardware.

Israel agreed to sell China the Phalcon Airborne Early Warning and Control System (AWACS). America strongly opposed the deal, predicting – rightfully so – that it would greatly improve China’s capabilities around Taiwan and undermine US security interests in the Pacific. Intense pressure from Washington followed to prevent the deal from moving forward. That included threats to withhold aid and stop military cooperation. Eventually, Israel was forced to cancel the transaction in 2000, paying China hundreds of millions in compensation.

Another high-profile case of a somewhat similar nature was the Lavi Project. During the 1980s, Lavi was a fighter jet developed in Israel by Israel Aircraft Industries. The development advanced to a few fully functioning flying prototypes and many successfully completed test flights.

But the project was cancelled. The cabinet decided with the vote of 12–11 and one abstention to stop the development. That decision created a political firestorm in Israel. There were many reasons behind it, both budgetary and political. Of the latter, the pressure from the United States to stop the project was the primary deciding factor.

America did not want to have another competition with its own fighter jet programs. It was also afraid of not having complete control over the export of the fighter jet, seeing it as a potential, serious security threat.

The debate of whether the decision to cancel the Lavi project was the correct one is still raging. One positive consequence is that the experience and scientific know-how gained during its development were later used to forge another now-famous Israeli industry of autonomous aerial vehicles and drones.

The current state of the world is a lot more complex than the one 20 or 40 years ago. The economic interdependence of the previous world order created connections, both economic and political, that are difficult to untangle or sometimes even to detect. The Cold War had a relatively simple playing field. One had to choose a side, and that choice, with some minor variations, determined the country’s economic model and, to some degree, its political system. Selling AWACS to China was a one-off event.

Today, Chinese economic interests and involvement are everywhere. Many of Israel’s infrastructure projects and their management are undertaken by Chinese conglomerates. Not dealing with the Asian superpower is impossible.

Selling weapons or technology to a friendly country is a complex decision. The country in question may be friendly, but its friends may not necessarily be Israel’s friends. A case in point is the recent Armenian purchase of suicide drones from India. New Delhi insists on producing its weaponry domestically, so it acquired technology from Israel.

Now it exports its locally produced drones to Armenia. That angers Azerbaijan, a good friend of Israel and major purchaser of its military technology. Israel must become clever, smart, and strategic in operating in the complex, multifaceted political environment of the new order. Not everything right is going to be smart – and the opposite is true as well.

Israel will continue to be an ally and friend of the United States. Yet the multipolar nature of the New World Order – and at times schizophrenic changes in American foreign policy – will require Jerusalem to distance itself from Washington. America will find the distance between the allies useful, as both countries may not always find sunlight in their policies.

The Jewish state will need to become a good friend of the United States, a friend capable of going on its own when the superpower is absent. That will require cultivating long-term strategic relationships with other countries squeezed by the big power struggle. The Old World Order is dead – but every death is a new beginning.