Phase II of the Gaza stabilization plan, with Jared Kushner’s hope for spectacular success, offers a path toward regional integration but entails significant strategic risks that threaten traditional security paradigms.
To navigate this reality, Israel must adapt to a whole new series of challenges. The blueprint for gaining advantage in uncertainty, for Israel and also other countries, can be found in the improbable rebirth of the border town of Sderot.
On October 7, 2023, terrorists killed more than 70 residents of the southern Israeli city of Sderot, a town just miles from Gaza that has endured more than 35,000 rocket attacks over the past two decades. Two-thirds of the population were forced to evacuate.
But Sderot didn’t vanish. It was rebuilt and grew. Today, it has more residents than before the massacre and is becoming a hub for resilience-driven startups. How did this happen?
Back in 2000, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah famously described Israel as “weaker than a spiderweb.” That metaphor has resurfaced repeatedly over the past five years when Israel has faced three critical challenges: the global COVID-19 epidemic, protests of legal reform, and almost two years of regional wars.
But the spiderweb didn’t snap. It stretched, absorbing the blows. Israel’s society proved not only able to survive crises but also to emerge stronger from them.
Israel’s response to trauma reflects what Nassim Nicholas Taleb terms “antifragility” – a system that doesn’t merely withstand shocks but improves because of them. As Taleb writes, “Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness.
The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better.”
Sderot confirms his thesis. In the aftermath of October 7, local leaders partnered with Israel’s National Insurance Institute and Sheba Medical Center to launch a Resilience Innovation Center and Accelerator. More than 300 startups have since emerged, developing tools for trauma recovery: sleep aids for PTSD, portable stress-relief chambers, and other solutions grounded in lived experience. These ventures are not abstract theories, but are co-designed with first responders, psychologists, and educators.
Israeli societycontinued to function despite sirens
At the national level, Israel’s conduct during the Iran-Israel conflict in June 2025 showed similar antifragile traits. During 12 days of sirens and bunker routines, Israeli society maintained remarkable functionality. Weddings continued, businesses operated, and daily life persisted alongside emergency protocols. Civil society mobilized: Volunteers organized yachts from Cyprus to retrieve stranded citizens, while strangers opened their homes to many of the nearly three million households without access to shelters.
This wasn’t denial: It was adaptation.
Even economic indicators suggest surprising elasticity. After an initial post-October 7 unemployment spike to 10%, rates dropped to 3.1% by the end of 2026. The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange reached its highest point since 2020 during the Iran conflict and has continued to rise, with the TA-35 index gaining over 50% in 2025 alone. Israel’s high-tech sector, which contributes 20% of GDP and over half of exports, attracted $12 billion in investment in 2024, 2-3% of global investment despite Israel representing just 0.3% of global GDP.
Antifragility isn’t an inherent national trait: It’s a capacity developed through deliberate policy. Not all Israeli cities rebounded like Sderot. Some focused on grievance and still struggle to attract back residents who fled. Sderot offers a blueprint for anti-fragility:
- Root innovation in local experience. Top-down directives cannot substitute for the urgency and insight that emerge when communities engage as true partners in problem-solving.
- Encourage diversity and experimentation. Many of Sderot’s successes came after failure. Policy should reward initiative, tolerate risk, and enable regulatory flexibility for pilot programs. Redundancy matters: multiple parallel efforts increase the odds that something will work.
- Invest in social capital. Innovation requires trust. Policies must prioritize transparency, participation, and inclusion. Social capital depends on open dialogue, the ability to hear dissent, and knowing when to bend.
The current fragile ceasefire with Gaza illustrates antifragility in action. Global pressure to end the war increased with momentum towards boycotts and sanctions. Immense pressures from US President Donald Trump and other leaders converged with a grassroots push to bring home hostages. This combination led the Israeli government to adjust, backpedaling on some of its hardline conditions, and finding a solution – flexing without breaking.
Yet antifragility comes with a cost. Nasrallah’s spiderweb metaphor collapsed, but constant pressure frays even the strongest fibers. Israel’s per-capita GDP dropped during the conflict, consumption declined, and defense spending soared. The debt-to-GDP ratio is nearing critical levels, while schools, hospitals, and social services operate under strain. Add to this deep political polarization, ongoing protests, and a concerning rise in Israeli’s deciding to leave the country. Israel’s resilience is tested from within as much as from the outside.
A society can’t define itself by its ability to endure trauma. Even elite athletes need recovery. Pressure can build resilience, but never-ending pressure eventually breaks people. An estimated half a million Israelis are at risk for PTSD. The goal isn’t to valorize suffering – it is to escape the cycle that makes such strength necessary.
Still, Israel’s experience offers a roadmap for other crisis-prone regions. In Ukraine, conflict-tested communities can pioneer rapid-response tech and digital defense platforms. Honduras, facing climate extremes, can lead in drought-resistant agriculture and decentralized emergency planning. Florida can drive innovation in stormproof infrastructure, evacuation systems, and resilient insurance models.
Wherever crisis strikes, antifragility offers a roadmap – and the policy principles learned in Israel can help transform disruption into strength. The spiderweb didn’t snap: It flexed, adapted, and endured. In a volatile world, the future belongs not to the strongest, but to the most adaptable.
Avner Halperin is a senior fellow at the Middle East Initiative of Harvard Kennedy School and CEO of Sheba Impact Ltd.
Barak Sella is a research fellow at the initiative and founder of The Abraham Tent, a nonprofit that strengthens civic leadership across North America and the Abraham Accords region.