Israel and the United States have embarked on a campaign whose objectives are far broader than those of the “12-Day War” or the mere degradation of specific Iranian regime capabilities.
In a coordinated effort, Israel and the United States are targeting Iran’s strategic assets, with particular emphasis on its missile array.
At the same time, they are working to destabilize the regime from within by striking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) facilities, government institutions, and regime-owned economic assets, as well as capabilities that threaten the American naval presence.
Two militaries
Unlike the previous round, the Iranian regime appears to have been better prepared for the current confrontation, and its response capabilities may have improved since the 12-day campaign. However, this time it's facing two militaries simultaneously.
The key question concerns the endgame from an Israeli and American perspective: What would constitute success? The objectives of this campaign are highly ambitious and appear to rest, at least in part, on the assumption that the regime is vulnerable.
Can Iran display resilience?
But what if that assumption proves incorrect? If the regime demonstrates resilience and manages to stabilize itself, how would this campaign conclude?
In bottom-line terms, we are at the outset of a broad, complex, and likely prolonged event. Iran is not expected to surrender, and the campaign may evolve in ways that require strategic adjustments from all parties involved.
The writer is a senior researcher in the Iran and the Shi'ite Axis Program at the Institute for National Security Studies.