It would be naive to assume governments lasting generations could be replaced seamlessly over 10 years.
By JUDAH WAXELBAUMUpdated: DECEMBER 21, 2020 20:36A GIRL stands outside her family’s hut at the Shawqaba camp for internally displaced people who were forced to leave their villages by the war in Yemen’s northwestern province of Hajjah in 2016. (photo credit: ABDULJABBAR ZEYAD/REUTERS)
The levers of democracy do not pull themselves. In 2010, many believed a new era arrived for the Arab world. We witnessed the fall of giants but were not truly prepared for what would take their place once the dust had settled.In many cases, the Arab Spring was a flash in the pan, short-lived conflicts that died off. While some believe the Arab Spring amounted to little, I think the declaration of its death has been greatly exaggerated.Throughout the Arab world, the Arab Spring is still playing out. In Libya and Yemen, bloody civil wars have gripped the nations for the last decade. Other countries have picked sides based on self-interests, wanting the more aligned factions to seize power. Libya is a prime example of how other nations that quelled their protests still fear the Arab Spring.Following the death of Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi, Libya divided between the UN-recognized Government of National Accord and the Libyan National Army led by Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar. The GNA is supported by Turkey and Qatar, while the LNA is backed by Egypt, Russia and the United Arab Emirates. The backers of each side are directly related to how the Arab Spring played out in Egypt.Egypt is the most studied of the Arab Spring outcomes; the people overthrew president Hosni Mubarak. It took only 18 days for this 30-year regime to fall. Following the toppling of Mubarak, the people elected Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Muslim Brotherhood was able to play into the cries for change, preparing its motives for more significant Islamic rule. In less than two years, Morsi was removed by the military, resulting in the installation of current President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.One of Sisi’s first moves in office was to outlaw the Muslim Brotherhood. This becomes incredibly important to note since Libya’s GNA is a Muslim Brotherhood government. Sisi cannot allow the Brotherhood to control Libya fully; it would put the Brotherhood on his doorstep. Libya’s civil war was halted after Sisi received approval to send military forces into Libya if the GNA pushed beyond the cities of Jufra or Sirte.Should the GNA test Sisi’s redline, a direct war between Turkey and Egypt would be on the table in Libya. It is unclear whether the parties vying for Libya’s resources and influence are willing to put their blood on the line. It is a gamble neither side is currently rushing to make. It is unclear how this conflict can be resolved, as both sides claim they will not accept the other in power.Meanwhile, in Yemen, one of the greatest humanitarian disasters in decades is occurring. Yemen’s government, backed mainly by Saudi Arabia, is fighting against Houthi rebels who hold ties to Iran. The House of Saud would never allow an Iran-allied government to arise on its southern border. The Saudis sent tanks and military to neighboring nations during the Arab Spring to quell all uprisings. Reforms not directly determined by the monarchies would threaten the rule Gulf Cooperation Council nations have spent lifetimes establishing.Another Arab Spring-like moment is always possible. This started with a street vendor in Tunisia who set himself on fire to call attention to his government-imposed struggles. A single individual can generate a movement that inspires conflicts in Egypt, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Lebanon; it would not make sense to say we are beyond new cries for change. If anything, the potential for revolution is only more significant due to advancements in social media and global reporting.Plenty of reflective pieces marking the 10th anniversary of the Arab Spring make the argument that we have moved past this phase, when in reality the conflict is still going on. It would be naive to assume governments lasting generations could be replaced seamlessly over 10 years. The actions of Arab nations post Arab Spring show they do not believe this saga is over.It would be easy to say there were a few revolutions with short shelf lives, but that completely ignores the ripple effects we still feel today.The writer is the western regional vice chairman for the College Republican National Committee.
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